The sustainability of a pay-as-you-go pension system strongly depends on the underlying demographic process determining the inverse old-age dependency ratio (the proportion of the active subpopulation to pensioners), considered as a sustainability index. Based on the classical Leslie population model, a dynamic demographic model including a controlled immigration is set up. A convergent algorithm is given which steers the population towards a demographic equilibrium with a better sustainability index, and at the same time minimizes the yearly immigration. In addition, simulations are provided for Italian data, comparing the demographic dynamics corresponding to different decision scenarios. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Sustainability of a pay-as-you-go pension system by dynamic immigration control / Angrisani, Massimo; Attias, Anna; Sergio, Bianchi; Zoltan, Varga. - In: APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTATION. - ISSN 0096-3003. - STAMPA. - 219:5(2012), pp. 2442-2452. [10.1016/j.amc.2012.08.080]
Sustainability of a pay-as-you-go pension system by dynamic immigration control
ANGRISANI, Massimo;ATTIAS, Anna;BIANCHI, SERGIO
2012
Abstract
The sustainability of a pay-as-you-go pension system strongly depends on the underlying demographic process determining the inverse old-age dependency ratio (the proportion of the active subpopulation to pensioners), considered as a sustainability index. Based on the classical Leslie population model, a dynamic demographic model including a controlled immigration is set up. A convergent algorithm is given which steers the population towards a demographic equilibrium with a better sustainability index, and at the same time minimizes the yearly immigration. In addition, simulations are provided for Italian data, comparing the demographic dynamics corresponding to different decision scenarios. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.