The incremental contribution of positivity and academic self-efficacy in predicting dropout intention in a sample of university students

Introduction: Academic dropout is a complex phenomenon and one of the main challenges for universities and students themselves, with significant consequences. Empirical studies show that contextual factors and individual differences can influence the propensity to drop out. Among the most studied variables, self-efficacy has been associated with greater persistence in studying, while perceived stress has been associated with an increased risk of dropout. The incremental contribution of self-efficacy and positivity in modulating the intention to drop out of university, controlling for sociodemographic characteristics and perceived stress levels, remains poorly investigated. Method: The study investigated the effect of perceived stress, positivity, and academic self-efficacy on the intention to drop out in a sample of 578 university students aged between 19 and 32 years (M = 23.07, SD = 2.51; 70.04% female; 47.1% undergraduate), controlling for age, gender, and degree program. An online survey was administered. To assess the incremental contribution of positivity and self-efficacy, a hierarchical Poisson regression analysis was conducted, with the progressive inclusion of sociodemographic variables (Step 1), perceived stress (Step 2), positivity (Step 3), and academic self-efficacy (Step 4). Results: The final model explained 28% of the variance in dropout intention (R² = 0.282, p < .001). In the baseline model (R² = 0.105, p < .001), older age and attendance in a bachelor’s degree program were correlated with the risk of dropout. The increase in explained variance was ΔR² = 0.108 with the addition of perceived stress in step 2, ΔR² = 0.032 with positivity in step 3, and ΔR² = 0.037 with academic self-efficacy in step 4. In the final model, positivity (expB = 0.922, p < .001) and academic self-efficacy (expB = 0.989, p < .001) were negatively associated with dropout intention, whereas perceived stress was positively associated (expB = 1.082, p < .001). Implications: The findings underscore the importance of promoting positivity and academic self-efficacy to reduce university dropout intentions. Furthermore, they may provide useful insights for designing targeted and effective prevention programs aimed at enhancing these psychological resources, along with stress management strategies, in order to promote students' academic success.