Accurately modeling city-scale electricity demand is fundamental to the design of data-driven forecasting, demand-response (DR), and grid-control solutions. This paper introduces an open-source simulator that recreates city-wide electricity demand by linking four key models in one sub-hourly loop: (1) a weather generator that produces temperature, solar, wind, humidity, and price signals; (2) a building-load model that converts these time series into residential, commercial, and industrial demand; (3) a demand-response (DR) aggregator that trims or shifts loads when prices are high or feeder limits are reached; and (4) a distribution-network power-flow solver that checks voltages and line ratings on a feeder. To this aim we adopted the pandapower tool. All outputs like weather, sector loads, curtailed demand, and grid states are streamed to disk in compressed chunks, so multi-year studies run without exhausting memory. A built-in test suite strengthens scientific rigour: it (i) verifies bit-for-bit reproducibility under fixed random seeds, (ii) confirms that temperature and wind residuals follow the intended Normal and Weibull laws, (iii) uses Ljung–Box tests to show the expected time-correlation, (iv) computes steady-state confidence intervals with the batch-means method, and (v) checks model sensitivity by sweeping key parameters. Together, these features give planners, utilities, and researchers a reliable tool for exploring how weather, occupant behaviour, DR rules, and network limits interact.

A universal urban electricity-demand simulator for developing and evaluating load-scheduling and forecasting systems / Taghdisi Rastkar, Sabereh; Jamili, Saeid; De Santis, Enrico; Rizzi, Antonello. - 2829:(2025), pp. 570-579. ( IJCCI 2025 - International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence Marbella; Spain ) [10.1007/978-3-032-15638-9_33].

A universal urban electricity-demand simulator for developing and evaluating load-scheduling and forecasting systems

Sabereh Taghdisi Rastkar
Writing – Original Draft Preparation
;
Saeid Jamili
Validation
;
Enrico De Santis
Supervision
;
Antonello Rizzi
Supervision
2025

Abstract

Accurately modeling city-scale electricity demand is fundamental to the design of data-driven forecasting, demand-response (DR), and grid-control solutions. This paper introduces an open-source simulator that recreates city-wide electricity demand by linking four key models in one sub-hourly loop: (1) a weather generator that produces temperature, solar, wind, humidity, and price signals; (2) a building-load model that converts these time series into residential, commercial, and industrial demand; (3) a demand-response (DR) aggregator that trims or shifts loads when prices are high or feeder limits are reached; and (4) a distribution-network power-flow solver that checks voltages and line ratings on a feeder. To this aim we adopted the pandapower tool. All outputs like weather, sector loads, curtailed demand, and grid states are streamed to disk in compressed chunks, so multi-year studies run without exhausting memory. A built-in test suite strengthens scientific rigour: it (i) verifies bit-for-bit reproducibility under fixed random seeds, (ii) confirms that temperature and wind residuals follow the intended Normal and Weibull laws, (iii) uses Ljung–Box tests to show the expected time-correlation, (iv) computes steady-state confidence intervals with the batch-means method, and (v) checks model sensitivity by sweeping key parameters. Together, these features give planners, utilities, and researchers a reliable tool for exploring how weather, occupant behaviour, DR rules, and network limits interact.
2025
IJCCI 2025 - International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence
city-scale energy simulation; smart grids; demand response; time series forecasting; xgboost forecasting; load scheduling
04 Pubblicazione in atti di convegno::04b Atto di convegno in volume
A universal urban electricity-demand simulator for developing and evaluating load-scheduling and forecasting systems / Taghdisi Rastkar, Sabereh; Jamili, Saeid; De Santis, Enrico; Rizzi, Antonello. - 2829:(2025), pp. 570-579. ( IJCCI 2025 - International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence Marbella; Spain ) [10.1007/978-3-032-15638-9_33].
File allegati a questo prodotto
File Dimensione Formato  
Rastkar_Universal_2025.pdf

solo gestori archivio

Tipologia: Versione editoriale (versione pubblicata con il layout dell'editore)
Licenza: Tutti i diritti riservati (All rights reserved)
Dimensione 223.71 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
223.71 kB Adobe PDF   Contatta l'autore

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11573/1758855
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus ND
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? ND
social impact