Exploring the Antecedents of Populism: An Experimental Study on the Role of Ostracism and Suspicion of fraud

Exploring the Antecedents of Populism: An Experimental Study on the Role of Ostracism and Suspicion of fraud Introduction Literature suggests intergroup ostracism fuels collective narcissism (Golec de Zavala, Dyduch‐Hazar & Lantos, 2019), a known precursor of conspiracy beliefs and populism (Golec de Zavala et al., 2021; 2022). Moreover, ostracism has a significant effect on conspiracy beliefs through vulnerability (Poon, Chen, & Wong, 2020). Objectives This study aims to verify whether ostracism impacts populism through the effects of vulnerability and collective narcissism (CN) and whether the suspicion of fraud may moderate such indirect effects. Materials and Methods After completing an ostracization task, a sample of 275 Italian participants was randomly assigned to one of two conditions (with vs without the suspicion of fraud). Then, it filled in the vulnerability, CN, conspiracy beliefs, and populist ideology measures. Results Path analysis results revealed that the positive effect of ostracism on vulnerability (b=.72, p<.01) is significantly lower when participants suspect fraud (b=.33, p<.01), even if the same suspect does not moderate the effect of ostracism on CN (b=.06, p=.42). However, vulnerability significantly predicts CN (b=.18, p<.01) and CN positively predicts populist ideology (B=.18, p<.01). Finally, also the indirect effects of ostracism on populist ideology are moderated by the suspect of fraud (no suspect: b=.02, 95% C.I.: .006; .049; suspect: b=.01, 95% C.I.: .003; .024). Conclusions When fraud is suspected, ostracized people are less vulnerable and tend to show lower levels of collective narcissism and, consequently, lower levels of populism.