Social Threats and Populist Attitudes: The Mediating Role of Need for Cognitive Closure

In threatening situations, individuals may experience a loss of certainty, leading them to seek reassurance in ideologies like populism that offer straightforward explanations. We conducted two cross-sectional studies in Italy, one year apart, to explore how different social threats (i.e., COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict) indirectly shaped populist attitudes through the Need for Cognitive Closure (NFCC). In 2022 (N=1668), both the perceived threat of COVID-19 and the threat posed by the Russia-Ukraine war were associated with higher levels of NFCC, which in turn was linked to stronger populist attitudes. More specifically, while the effect of the war-related threat on populist attitudes was fully mediated by NFCC, the impact of the COVID-19 threat had a significant direct influence on populist attitudes. In 2023 (N=1152), war threat directly influenced populist attitudes without being mediated by NFCC, whereas the effect of COVID-19 threat on populist attitudes was partially mediated by NFCC. These findings highlight that populism serves as a mechanism for individuals to face uncertainty in threatening situations, offering a framework for dealing with social crises.