Assessing site presence through radiocarbon density distributions: a new perspective on chronological modelling

This study presents a probabilistic framework for estimating site presence across chronological phases using Summed Probability Distributions (SPDs) of radiocarbon dates. The method integrates site-specific radiocarbon datasets with cultural attributions, enabling the inclusion of undated sites through SPD-based probabilistic cross-dating. This approach facilitates a shift from relative to absolute chronology in settlement modelling. The method was applied to central-southern Italy between 4000 and 1500 BC (from the Copper Age to the Middle Bronze Age), a period marked by significant cultural heterogeneity. Sites were assigned to 500-year chronological bins using density-weighted SPD calculations, generating a continuous temporal map of presence likelihood. This workflow offers a replicable strategy to enhance temporal resolution in archaeological datasets, even in the absence of direct radiocarbon dating.