Trend analysis of MODIS land surface temperature and land cover in Central Italy

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is an important climate factor for understanding the relationship between the land surface and atmosphere. Furthermore, LST is linked to soil moisture and evapotranspiration, which can potentially alter the severity and regime of wildfires, landslide-triggering precipitation thresholds, and others. In this paper, the monthly daytime and nighttime LST products of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are employed for the period 2000–2023 in order to find areas that have been cooling or warming in a region of great interest in Central Italy, due to its complex geological and geomorphological settings and its recent seismic sequences and landslide events. The annual MODIS land cover images for 2001–2022 are also utilized to investigate the interconnection between LST and land cover change. The results of the non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test and its associated Sen’s slope reveal a significant nighttime warming trend in the region, particularly in July, linked to forest and woodland expansion. Grasslands toward the coastline with low elevation (less than 500 m a.s.l.) have experienced significant heat waves during the summer, with an LST of more than 35 °C. A significant negative correlation between the elevation and LST is observed for each calendar month. In particular, the daytime and nighttime LST have more than 80% correlation with elevation during winter and summer, respectively. In addition, nighttime warming and gradual drainage are noticed in Lake Campotosto. The results of this study could be useful for wildfire and landslide susceptibility analyses and hazard management.