Work in (slow) progress: Latent suburbanization, economic restructuring, and urban-rural convergence in a southeastern European city

The present study investigates suburbanization trends in a socially divided and economically polarized Mediterranean region (Attica, Greece) using multivariate time series analysis of 47 indicators assessing 8 research dimensions (demography, labor market, settlements, agricultural production, rural areas, economic performance, transport, and services) over nearly 50 years (1960-2008). Attica's region was partitioned in 2 spatial domains (the Greater Athens district, including Athens and Piraeus, and the rest of the metropolitan region administered by more than 50 municipalities). Nonparametric concordance analysis and principal component analysis identify 2 distinct growth waves (with a breakpoint in the early 1980s) and distinguish fast from slow changes in the factors contributing to Athens' transition from industry to advanced services. Up to the early 1980s, Greater Athens experienced population increase and settlement densification; the rest of Attica underwent moderate suburbanization with expanding urban functions. Since the late 1980s, Greater Athens experienced stable population and economic consolidation; the rest of Attica underwent residential sprawl and concentration of activities in the most accessible suburbs. This spatial pattern reflects the specificity of recent Mediterranean urbanization in respect to the development paths prevailing in western and northern European cities. Evidence highlights the importance of multiscale analysis investigating growth and change of informal and scattered cities in both developed and emerging countries.