Assessing the determinants of local tourism demand: a simultaneous equations model for the Italian Provinces

Traditional analysis of tourism demand has been mainly based on the consideration of economic variables aiming at explaining the evolution of either tourists’ expenditure or overnight stays or arrivals. This study is based on a collection of both economic variables and non-economic factors surveyed since 1998–2013 for 99 Italian NUTS3 (Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics) regions (provinces). It is the first study in which such a wide array of non-economic and economic variables has been investigated for a panel data at this geographical level by using a simultaneous equations model. The analysis shows that all considered variables are significant for the evolution of tourism demand and that climate, tourism supply and entrepreneurial capabilities have the largest impacts.