OBJECTIVE: The increased survival in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) patients implies the development of chronic damage, occurring in up to 50% of cases. Its prevention is a major goal in the SLE management. We aimed at predicting chronic damage in a large monocentric SLE cohort by using neural networks. METHODS: We enrolled 413 SLE patients (M/F 30/383; mean age ± SD 46.3±11.9 years; mean disease duration ± SD 174.6 ± 112.1 months). Chronic damage was assessed by the SLICC/ACR Damage Index (SDI). We applied Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) as a machine-learning model to predict the risk of chronic damage. The clinical data sequences registered for each patient during the follow-up were used for building and testing the RNNs. RESULTS: At the first visit in the Lupus Clinic, 35.8% of patients had an SDI≥1. For the RNN model, two groups of patients were analyzed: patients with SDI = 0 at the baseline, developing damage during the follow-up (N = 38), and patients without damage (SDI = 0). We created a mathematical model with an AUC value of 0.77, able to predict damage development. A threshold value of 0.35 (sensitivity 0.74, specificity 0.76) seemed able to identify patients at risk to develop damage. CONCLUSION: We applied RNNs to identify a prediction model for SLE chronic damage. The use of the longitudinal data from the Sapienza Lupus Cohort, including laboratory and clinical items, resulted able to construct a mathematical model, potentially identifying patients at risk to develop damage.

Prediction of chronic damage in systemic lupus erythematosus by using machine-learning models / Ceccarelli, Fulvia; Sciandrone, Marco; Perricone, Carlo; Galvan, G; Morelli, F; Vicente, Ln; Leccese, Ilaria; Massaro, Laura; Cipriano, Enrica; Spinelli, FRANCESCA ROMANA; Alessandri, Cristiano; Valesini, Guido; Conti, Fabrizio. - In: PLOS ONE. - ISSN 1932-6203. - ELETTRONICO. - (2017). [10.1371/journal.pone.0174200]

Prediction of chronic damage in systemic lupus erythematosus by using machine-learning models

CECCARELLI, FULVIA;SCIANDRONE, MARCO;PERRICONE, CARLO;LECCESE, ILARIA;MASSARO, LAURA;CIPRIANO, ENRICA;SPINELLI, FRANCESCA ROMANA;ALESSANDRI, cristiano;VALESINI, Guido;CONTI, FABRIZIO
2017

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: The increased survival in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) patients implies the development of chronic damage, occurring in up to 50% of cases. Its prevention is a major goal in the SLE management. We aimed at predicting chronic damage in a large monocentric SLE cohort by using neural networks. METHODS: We enrolled 413 SLE patients (M/F 30/383; mean age ± SD 46.3±11.9 years; mean disease duration ± SD 174.6 ± 112.1 months). Chronic damage was assessed by the SLICC/ACR Damage Index (SDI). We applied Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) as a machine-learning model to predict the risk of chronic damage. The clinical data sequences registered for each patient during the follow-up were used for building and testing the RNNs. RESULTS: At the first visit in the Lupus Clinic, 35.8% of patients had an SDI≥1. For the RNN model, two groups of patients were analyzed: patients with SDI = 0 at the baseline, developing damage during the follow-up (N = 38), and patients without damage (SDI = 0). We created a mathematical model with an AUC value of 0.77, able to predict damage development. A threshold value of 0.35 (sensitivity 0.74, specificity 0.76) seemed able to identify patients at risk to develop damage. CONCLUSION: We applied RNNs to identify a prediction model for SLE chronic damage. The use of the longitudinal data from the Sapienza Lupus Cohort, including laboratory and clinical items, resulted able to construct a mathematical model, potentially identifying patients at risk to develop damage.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11573/945864
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