Predictive factors for development of neovascular age-related macular degeneration. A spectral-domain optical coherence tomography study

PURPOSE: To investigate the risk factors predictive for the development of neovascular age-related macular degeneration (NVAMD) by means of spectral-domain optical coherence tomography. METHODS: Retrospective study of 73 eyes graded Stage 2 and Stage 3 according to the AMD International Grading System with minimum follow-up of 24 months. Drusenoid pigment epithelial detachment, hyperreflective foci, external limiting membrane, inner ellipsoid band, and retinal pigment epithelium integrity were analyzed at baseline and last follow-up. Binary logistic regression model analyzed significant predictors of neovascular conversion. RESULTS: The discontinuity of external limiting membrane, inner ellipsoid band, and retinal pigment epithelium bands were significantly more prevalent in the NVAMD group at baseline and last follow-up (P < 0.001). Hyperreflective foci represented the single most important predictor of neovascular conversion (Exp [B], 15.15; P = 0.005) as confirmed by Kaplan-Meier curve (P = 0.002). Drusenoid pigment epithelial detachment width was significantly greater in NVAMD group than control subjects at baseline and last follow-up (P < 0.001), and its delta value also resulted a significant neovascular predictor (Exp [B], 0.99; P = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Hyperreflective foci significantly increase the risk of NVAMD progression. The delta width of drusenoid pigment epithelial detachment also predicts disease progression, integrating the stratification of NVAMD progression risk.