Sicurezza e capacità della circolazione ferroviaria: ruolo delle norme regolamentari

The aim of the research deals with three important themes of the railway system: regulation, safety and infrastructure’s capacity. The research wants to develop a methodology to quantify the performance of the railway system basing on three components: human factors, technological devices and regulations. The proposed methodology is applicable to several specific cases of the railway sector, once the system is defined in terms of infrastructure, signaling and safety systems, rolling stock, regulations and operational model. Pilot applications provide to: - outline the applicable operating procedures; - assess the possibility that critical safety situations may occur consequently to critical scenarios; - estimate the probability of occurrence of each critical scenario that has been identified and determine the corresponding level of risk; - examine the influence of technological and human components in operational processes; - determine possible effects on rail traffic in terms of delay, irregularity, etc. The obtained results can be useful when the technological innovation causes significant changes in the regulatory system and in the management of human behaviour, with the possibility to generate greater risks for people, environment, rail traffic and, generally, for the rail system. Further developments are identifiable from the results obtained thus far. In first analysis they can be summarized in: - support tools to evaluate complex operating situations; - tools to help in the assessment of the influence of human factors and technology; - methods of formalization of theological functioning and of the structure of business processes; - integration with expert systems.