A Bayesian predictive two stage design for phase II clinical trials: the case of continuous endpoints

Single-arm two-stage designs for phase II of clinical trials typically focus on a binary endpoint obtained by dichotomising an underlying continuous measure of treatment efficacy. To avoid the resulting loss of information, we propose a two-stage design based on a Bayesian predictive approach that directly uses the original continuous endpoint. Numerical results are provided with reference to phase II cancer trials aimed at assessing tumour shrinking effect of an experimental treatment.