We propose a stochastic model which matches some relevant stylized facts observed in time series of financial indexes, and that are not fully captured by the models most often used in this context. These stylized facts concern with the distribution of the log-returns (increments of the logarithm of the index). This distribution is not Gaussian, and its moments obey peculiar scaling relations (multiscaling). Moreover, absolute values of log-returns in disjoint (2) time intervals are positively correlated (clustering of volatility): their correlation has slow (sub-exponential) decay for moderate time distances (up to few months), and have a faster decay for larger distances. The simplicity of the model allows sharp analytic results, statistical estimation of its few parameters, and low computational effort in simulations, allowing its con- crete use in applications such as option pricing.
A model for multiscaling and clustering of volatility in financial indexes / Alessandro, Andreoli; Francesco, Caravenna; Paolo Dai, Pra; Posta, Gustavo. - STAMPA. - (2010), pp. 435-442. (Intervento presentato al convegno 19th International Symposium on Mathematical Theory of Networks and Systems – MTNS 2010 • 5–9 July, 2010 • Budapest, Hungary tenutosi a Budapest, Hungary nel 5-9 luglio 2010).
A model for multiscaling and clustering of volatility in financial indexes
POSTA, GUSTAVO
2010
Abstract
We propose a stochastic model which matches some relevant stylized facts observed in time series of financial indexes, and that are not fully captured by the models most often used in this context. These stylized facts concern with the distribution of the log-returns (increments of the logarithm of the index). This distribution is not Gaussian, and its moments obey peculiar scaling relations (multiscaling). Moreover, absolute values of log-returns in disjoint (2) time intervals are positively correlated (clustering of volatility): their correlation has slow (sub-exponential) decay for moderate time distances (up to few months), and have a faster decay for larger distances. The simplicity of the model allows sharp analytic results, statistical estimation of its few parameters, and low computational effort in simulations, allowing its con- crete use in applications such as option pricing.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.