The long-term decline of internal migration in Canada: the case of Ontario

Migration between the Canadian provinces generally followed a declining trend over the period 1971–2004. In this paper, taking Ontario a case study, we seek to explain these patterns using recent panel cointegration methods that are robust to cross-section dependence. Estimation of heterogeneous models suggests that the determinants of migration vary across provinces. Overall, unemployment differential and income in the sending province appear to be the most important ones, with income and federal transfer differentials playing only a minor role.