Overall safety performance of air traffic management system: forecasting and monitoring

Defining means to assess safety performance and delve into their causes is one of the current and future challenges of the air transport sector. This paper develops an improvement of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) safety evaluation in order to develop proactive safety indicators, based on Aerospace Performance Factor and Analytic Hierarchy Process. The research aims to carry out a statistical model of safety events in order to predict safety performance, combining in a Monte Carlo simulation the results emerged from the literature analysis with the analytical models of historic data interpretation. Through the analysis of the possible scenarios, assessing their impact on equipment, procedures and human factor, this model will address the interventions of the decision maker.