Projections of climate extremes under potential climate change as represented by changing equator to pole temperature gradient and land ocean temperature contrast.

Under climate variability and anthropogenic forcing, the Equator-to-Pole Temperature Gradient (EPG) and the Ocean-Land Temperature Contrast (OLC) undergo systematic changes, which can be associated with the equatorial pacific circulation patterns via teleconnections, and with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) via ocean-atmosphere coupling. We couple the Lorenz ’84 atmospheric model, a Box AMOC model (after Roebber 1994), and an ENSO coupled ocean-atmosphere model (Tziperman et al, 1994) to explore the sensitivity of the strength, position and other statistics of the mid-latitude wind components to changes in the aforementioned systems and components. Sea ice and water balances are not explicitly modeled. We then develop and discuss projections of the changes in persistence, low frequency variability, and frequency of extremes in key climatic parameters, as specific climate changes, anticipated under anthropogenic forcing in the 21st century, are postulated.