We investigate the space-time structure of extreme precipitation in Europe over the last century, using daily rainfall data from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D) archive. The database includes 267 stations with records longer than 100 years. In the winter season (October to March), for each station, two classes of daily rainfall amount values are selected that, respectively, exceed the 90th and 95th percentile of daily rainfall amount over all the 100 years. For each class, and at each location, an annual time series of the frequency of exceedance and of the total precipitation, defined respectively as the number of days the rainfall threshold (90th and 95th percentiles) is exceeded and total precipitation on days when the percentile is exceeded, are developed. Space-time structure of the frequency and total precipitation time series at the different locations are then pursued using multivariate time and frequency domain methods. The identified key trends and organized spectral modes are linked to well-known climate indices, as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The spectra of the leading principal component of frequency of exceedance and of total precipitation have a peak with a 5-year period that is significant at the 5% level. These are also significantly correlated with ENSO series with this period. The spectrum of total rainfall is significant at the 10% level with a period of ∼8years. This appears to be significantly correlated to the NAO index at this period. Thus, a decomposition of both secular trends and quasi-periodic behaviour in extreme daily rainfall is provided. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

Space-time structure of extreme precipitation in Europe over the last century / Cioffi, Francesco; Upmanu, Lall; Ester, Rus; Chandra Kiran B., Krishnamurthy. - In: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. - ISSN 0899-8418. - ELETTRONICO. - 35:8(2015), pp. 1749-1760. [10.1002/joc.4116]

Space-time structure of extreme precipitation in Europe over the last century

CIOFFI, Francesco;
2015

Abstract

We investigate the space-time structure of extreme precipitation in Europe over the last century, using daily rainfall data from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D) archive. The database includes 267 stations with records longer than 100 years. In the winter season (October to March), for each station, two classes of daily rainfall amount values are selected that, respectively, exceed the 90th and 95th percentile of daily rainfall amount over all the 100 years. For each class, and at each location, an annual time series of the frequency of exceedance and of the total precipitation, defined respectively as the number of days the rainfall threshold (90th and 95th percentiles) is exceeded and total precipitation on days when the percentile is exceeded, are developed. Space-time structure of the frequency and total precipitation time series at the different locations are then pursued using multivariate time and frequency domain methods. The identified key trends and organized spectral modes are linked to well-known climate indices, as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The spectra of the leading principal component of frequency of exceedance and of total precipitation have a peak with a 5-year period that is significant at the 5% level. These are also significantly correlated with ENSO series with this period. The spectrum of total rainfall is significant at the 10% level with a period of ∼8years. This appears to be significantly correlated to the NAO index at this period. Thus, a decomposition of both secular trends and quasi-periodic behaviour in extreme daily rainfall is provided. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.
2015
hydrology; frequency analysis; extreme precipitation; atmospheric teleconnections
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Space-time structure of extreme precipitation in Europe over the last century / Cioffi, Francesco; Upmanu, Lall; Ester, Rus; Chandra Kiran B., Krishnamurthy. - In: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. - ISSN 0899-8418. - ELETTRONICO. - 35:8(2015), pp. 1749-1760. [10.1002/joc.4116]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11573/618780
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