Modeling the Landscape Drivers of Fire Recurrence in Sardinia (Italy)

Although recurrent fire events with very short return periods have the most dangerous effects on landscape degradation, only a few papers have explored the landscape ecological factors that drive the probability of fire recurrence. In this paper we apply a habitat suitability model for analyzing the spatial relationship between a selected set of landscape factors (mainly land use types) and fire recurrence in Sardinia (Italy) in the years 2005–2010. Our results point out that fire occurrence in already burned areas is lower than expected in natural and semi-natural land cover types, like forest and shrublands. To the contrary, like in all regions where human activity is the main source of fire ignitions, the probability of fire recurrence is higher at low altitudes and close to roads and to urban and agricultural land cover types, thus showing marked preference for those landscape factors denoting higher anthropogenic ignition risk.