The intensification of the financial turmoil that accompanied the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, resulted in a substantial worldwide increase in the levels of perceived uncertainty in all asset classes. The main developments during the period involved in the first instance the persistence of significant dysfunction in financial markets impacting on levels of confidence and uncertainty, and subsequently on economic activity: worldwide it has held steady at very weak levels following a sudden contraction of all major economic areas. The paventarsi onset of systemic risk has urged governments and central banks around the world to put in place major intervention measures aimed at containing the same and to the restoration of financial stability. The shock wave is poured on the activities of the advanced economies which have been adversely affected by the needs of "repositioning budget" for families and businesses. Emerging markets to chain effect, have not been spared, because of the unusual drop in global trade. From the second quarter of 2009, the measures of monetary and fiscal policy, as well as measures to stabilize the financial sector, have begun to exert a greater effect; the growth of the world economy has shown positive signs, due to the improvement of the conditions in the financial markets, to reduce uncertainty and a partial rebalancing of the loss of confidence of economic agents. Also, while remaining at very low levels, even global trade, have stabilized after he returned a positive sign after the first quarter of 2009. Ago The second half of the year to record the intensification of the global recovery with GDP growth of showing sometimes positive signs. In this context, however, it should be noted that the signs of recovery were not homogeneous in the different economies, factors mainly due to the diversity of economic policy measures taken in addition to the structural diversity of the economies; is interesting to note that the slowdown has occurred a matching of all the advanced economies, in contrast to the mismatch encountered in the recovery phase. Despite the positive signs, the growth of the world economy is not immune from fears of relapses and slowing down; This is due in particular, to the doubts about the possibility that the gradual removal of the extraordinary measures of monetary and fiscal policy should be accompanied by a recovery in private sector demand. Impacting the likely significant correction of household budgets in many countries, as well as the possible continuation of financial constraints for firms (ECB 2009). With reference to the euro area average in 2009, GDP has declined by 4.0 per cent, while the rate of inflation stood at 0.3 per cent, compared with expectations of inflation over the medium long-term rates below, but close to 2 percent. In this context and in response to the persistence of inflationary pressures in the early months of 2009, the ECB lowered to 1 per cent and the rate on the main refinancing operations, leaving interest rates unchanged reference in the remainder of this year and , to give the right impetus to the transmission of monetary policy continued to support the credit as a result of its abrupt fall. The line taken by the Governing Council, was based on measures to promote better financing conditions and the flow of credit to the economy, to support more than could have been achieved with the single maneuver on interest rates ECB ; alongside these measures have been taken additional unconventional in 2009, to address the malfunctioning of the money market and facilitate the propulsion of reference rates to money market rates and bank lending de. The goal was to promote more favorable financing terms to the flow of credit. Particular attention has been paid to the specific heterogeneity of the financial structure of the euro area economy, where banks play an important role both in financing and in maintaining the flow of credit to the economy. The enhanced credit support has taken into account the expectations downward with respect to the price, as well as the fall in commodity prices and the weakening of global economic activity. The above measures have resulted in a significant improvement in financing conditions in the euro area during the year, as evidenced by the shortening of differential-term interest rates in the money market and the significant decrease in the overall volatility of financial markets (ECB 2009). During the year we began to record signs of stabilization in global economic activity, and this has led to the gradual easing of the ECB non-standard measures to avoid distortions associated with maintaining them for an excessive period, and in order to provide incentives to banks in relation to their balance sheets. The disposal of these measures has not bound by the Eurosystem in ensuring the provision of liquidity to the banking system to facilitate the supply of credit to the economy of the area and to provide further stimulus to recovery. In Italy, the bank lending has started to decelerate in the first half of 2007, following a long expansion nearly five years. The dynamics of the loans has been further weakened by the outbreak of the crisis, to become negative in mid-2009. The slowdown in 2007-2009 coincided not only with the turbulence in the capital markets, with the weakness of the real estate sector, which led to the deterioration of the creditworthiness of bank customers with a consequent drop in consumer spending and investment. In the light of the occurrence of a negative deflection appears legitimate to ask what were the variables with the greatest impact on credit: the joint event of the above factors makes it difficult to determine whether, and to what extent, the deceleration of loans reflects a decline in demand from households and business rather than a restriction of supply by banks. Moreover, in light of the transposition of legislation on the adequacy of bank capital to the complexity of the evaluation of the phenomenon, it is also due to the impossibility to define sharply if the deterioration of the credit market foreshadow a slowdown in the supply of loans due to the reduction of the application or the worsening of the risk of insolvency, or reflect choices and internal constraints to the banks themselves. The issue is part of the debate among academics and regulatory authorities in a context characterized by strong legal and regulatory enzymes. Notable is the scientific production in the recent past has analyzed the issue, ranging in different disciplines and addressing multiple objectives of investigation nationally and internationally. As part of the recent crisis, the decline has been associated with negative credit, especially in the first instance, to the credit crunch. From a careful study of the literature shows, as the unit of measurement used to determine the existence and possible extent of the credit crunch is made up of the data on loans, with the assumption that their upward trend reveals the groundlessness of the occurrence of the phenomenon; and moreover, even in the face of a determined reduction, credit contraction is not associated with phenomena of a credit crunch if, at the same time, it manifests a phase of crisis and economic slowdown in an amount equal to or greater, since the contraction of loans due to the lower demand for credit. Given the complexity of the definition of the phenomenon, it appeared appropriate to bring the literature on the credit crunch in two main areas: one macro, which measures the intensity of the phenomenon through the credit index (the ratio of bank credit and nominal GDP) recognizing the phenomenon only when the decline of the credit is broader than the width of the downturn, and other microeconomic, which imputes the downturn in the credit factors endogenous to the financial system. The reflection on the theme of the credit crunch deepens the latter, in the event of a sudden reduction in the availability of credit, independent of interest rates governed by central banks, and therefore originated from factors internal to the banking system and finance. For an examination of the determinants of the process of generation of the receivables have been used qualitative and quantitative statistics on bank loans. The studies conducted by these types of investigation suggest that the financial crisis has triggered a credit crunch that is independent from the application. The selection process already in place in the provision of loans, was then compounded by the growing risk of a counterparty defaulting banks are faced with the deterioration of the balance sheets of households and businesses, caused by the violent recession. From a purely financial point of view, the distinctive characters of the credit crunch can be attributed to: a) reduce the supply of credit is not focused on specific sectors or firms to be classified with a low rating; b) restriction of credit that must be verified ceteris paribus, in other words, becomes relevant relationship between the amount of credit requested and the amount of credit granted. To verify the negative effects that the financial crisis has had on access to credit and the decline of the offer, it is necessary to investigate the variables that characterize specifically the emergence of the credit crunch, in order to ascertain whether in the changed economic environment, regulatory and policy they are actually made manifest phenomena of the credit crunch, or, more likely the occurrence of a phenomenon similar to most phenomena of credit selection understood as selective reduction of the credit. The objective of this work is to evaluate the importance of the determinants of restriction occurred on the supply side of credit in order to ascertain what are the major factors that have caused the restriction. Specifically, the research question, once defined the type of contraction displayed (credit crunch or credit selection), tries to give an answer concerning the relevance of factors intervened restriction on the supply side of credit, as well as the effectiveness / efficiency the choices made by bank intermediaries. In comparison with other European and international, the domestic financial industry has proven to be more resistant than the setbacks from the financial crisis: the fifteenth report of the Fondazione Rosselli (2010) attributes this "success" to the combination of two factors strongly present in the domestic banking system, namely the flexibility of the technologies of credit and the diversity of their businesses. This does not mean, however, the occurrence of phenomena of the credit crunch, although physiological, following periods of expansion of credit policy and / or subsequently in periods of strong economic and financial stress: the decline of the credit, in the Italian context, is associated the joint event of both factors. In any case, however, in view of substantial shrinkage, it is not possible to speak of denial or exclusion from the credit of subjects before they had access, that is rationing of credit to deserving subjects. It seems likely, therefore, to investigate about the dynamics that credit has taken following the occurrence of the phenomenon of contraction and ask what was the difference in behavior of the banking intermediaries present on the market in the selection of undertakings to which extend credit? The selection was effective in terms of recruitment and monitoring of the risk for intermediaries? The reduction in credit supply by the major groups has been fully offset by smaller banks in terms of both quantity and quality of credit? There is no doubt the dichotomy, with reference to the selection criteria for the granting of credit between banks that use the Originate to distribute model and instead banks that are more oriented to the model Originate to hold. The model Originate to Hold (literally originates and hold) is based on methods of lending anchored to the management of assets and liabilities in the balance sheet which provides for the retention of credit for households and businesses; for the bank, therefore, there is a strong incentive to screening, at the time of selection in the provision, and the subsequent monitoring. Risk management is linked to the bank-customer relationship both ex ante and ex post, ie that the supply of credit is tied to the knowledge of the customer, for which the bank will base its evaluation is taking as a reference the results of 'processing of hard information, whether soft information. These types of relationships are often associated with banking facilities of small businesses that have a strong local presence and have a closer relationship with customers even knowing the historical overview. In Originate to distribute model (literally originate and distribute), however, are less incentives that contribute to the proper functioning of disbursement and management of credit, because the basic philosophy involves the use of securitization to dispose of non-transferable credits. Thus, there is less incentive for the bank is that the screening monitoring: credit instruments morphology change, going from products tailored to the customer's profile to standardized products. Through the use of this model is also less, the need for contact with the customer by bringing the bank to carry out assessments only through the development of hard information. These types of relationships are often associated with major banking structures and groups. It is then the nodal relationship between bank and customer to verify and explain to what extent it can be shown to a "flight to small" that is a migration of all customers who have not seen satisfied his request for credit from major banks for different reasons and it is even more interesting to identify which type of customer may have put in place this kind of "strategy" aimed at obtaining the necessary credit. On the other hand you must always keep in mind that offer policies to see credit intermediaries stand in relation to the various constraints that are imposed on them such as, among others, capital strength, risk mitigation portfolio, the structure of assets and liabilities sheet; for which a comparable decline in credit quality or a deterioration in the creditworthiness of customers, what were the reasons that led the smaller banks to provide credit to these parties? These questions are asked in order to model and qualitatively define the interrelationships between economic, relational policies, fiscal policies, and the amount of credit offered; In addition, it seeks to identify what might be the actions to: ensure that customers are not satisfied and riskier a burden on the budgets of smaller banks; mitigate the effects of the credit crunch at the time of its occurrence. The qualitative analysis is carried out with reference to the results of the bank lending Italy (hereinafter Survey of Bank Lending Survey) conducted by the ECB in the euro area. It was decided to adopt a qualitative approach, and for the contribution of information structural approach, both to the difficulty in obtaining accurate and updated data. Since January 2003, the ECB conducts the survey on bank lending in the euro area with the main objective to gain a more complete view of the role of credit in the context of the monetary transmission mechanism, thus complementing the information on which underlying the exercise of analysis and evaluation at the base of the monetary policy decisions. The survey, which is updated four times a year, is aimed at senior officials responsible for loans, such as those responsible for the credit committees at the level of the board of directors or immediately below. The sample of banks participating in the survey is made at the European level by more than 120 banks, while for Italy together with eight banking groups representing more than two-thirds of the loan market in our country. Banks are required to assess, on the one hand, the orientation of the institution with regard to issues such as the criteria for the approval of the loans and the terms and conditions laid down for the granting thereof and, secondly, the factors that influence the demand for credit. It was given particular attention to the demand for credit and its major determinants, in order to fully understand the dynamics of the supply of credit. The questionnaire consists of seventeen questions related to loans to businesses and households: the focus of the work is framed on the first seven questions in the questionnaire, which, focusing on lending to businesses, to allow you to put the system variables that have an impact more on reducing the supply of credit and the information necessary to define the type of contraction that occurred. The temporal order of the Survey, while based on the period between 2003 and 2010: this period of time allows you to assess the impact of the new regulatory framework, that of financial and real crisis, as well as the effects of bank mergers and acquisitions started in our country already in the nineties. The analysis is carried out by observing the trends that disaggregated data is aggregated for different points in time. In particular it is noted separately for the supply of aggregates trends concerning loans and lines of credit in favor of firms with particular reference to the distinction by maturity, of the importance of the criteria applied by the bank to credit approval, terms and conditions practiced; the demand for its overall performance as well as its characterizing factors. The territorial scope was restricted to the national level given the complexity of the information and data necessary to provide a comprehensive reference and guidance. The expansion at European and international level concerns the possible future developments of the research. The work, which is part of the broader body of literature that deals with the bank-firm relationship, provides: a systematic literature review on the subject and produces a classification of the various phenomena of restriction of credit supply from both a macro point of view than from a microeconomic point of view; a taxonomy of the main variables that manifest their effects on the supply of credit in relation to the changed regulatory environment, economic and financial explicitly stating the different specific gravities; a focus on the supply of credit in Italy with the identification of the causes that led to the reduction in supply and the effects produced. Therefore, the paper is organized as follows. In the first part we proceed to a logical and conceptual framework of the tightening of credit by analyzing the different definitional aspects and highlighting the distinctive characteristics is that those contacts. The literature review was addressed by performing upstream splitting macro-economic analysis of the microeconomic setting aside the first because it serves the purpose of the thesis, and focusing instead on the financial aspects of the phenomenon tend to distinguish between: the financial crisis and banking crisis, credit crunch stemming from relationship banking, credit rationing, credit crunch, financial exclusion and selection. The first part of the work concludes with a contrasting explanation of the distinctions and interrelations between the various manifestations of tightening of credit generally understood. The second part of the work, however, focuses on a descriptive analysis of supply and demand for credit in Italy outlining the scenario and the economic-financial situation of enterprises and domestic banks in the time interval between the pre-crisis period and the post-crisis period. In the two chapters that compose it is addressed and the theoretical study of the variables that influence the supply of and demand for credit in Italy; in order to establish a complete picture of the offer was necessary to deal with the study of the demand for credit from the part of small and medium Italian enterprises (hereinafter SMEs), because just to these, the channel bank financing is the only source of external financing, making it difficult and too costly to resort to other forms of financing. In addition, it analyzes the determinants, in order to examine the trend in the demand for credit. In this way, it provides a general overview of the economic and financial situation of SMEs, only to observe and assess the impact of the financial crisis of 2008 on the same. The study of credit supply of Italian banks, has been addressed by considering separately the determinants that affect the quantity and the credit policies adopted by different lenders. Specifically, are investigated factors relating to the impact of the regulatory framework, the size of banking, monetary policy and liquidity of the markets. They also analyzed the pulses on the supply from the banking crises and financial crises. In this view there is provided an insight into the crisis of 2008. Offer more detailed analysis, it was considered appropriate to treat even the public interventions in support of the claim. Are provided in the last brief on Basel 3. Chapter 3 concludes with considerations of the development of the supply of credit. The third part of the work, composed of Chapter 4 is devoted to the empirical analysis, which is conducted through a qualitative analysis of credit supply in Italy from 2003 to 2010 and the exposure of the study results. Finally, the main conclusions are presented concerning research highlighting what are the major open issues and possible prospects and proposals for the future.
L’intensificarsi delle turbolenze finanziarie che ha accompagnato il tracollo di Lehman Brothers nel settembre 2008, si è tradotto a livello mondiale in un consistente aumento dei livelli di incertezza percepita in tutte le classi di attività. Le principali dinamiche del periodo hanno riguardato in prima battuta il perdurare di significative disfunzioni nei mercati finanziari con ripercussioni sui livelli di fiducia e di incertezza e, successivamente sull’attività economica: a livello mondiale essa si è attestata su livelli molto deboli a seguito di una brusca contrazione di tutte le aree economiche principali. Il paventarsi dell’insorgere di un rischio sistemico ha sollecitato i governi e le banche centrali di tutto il mondo a porre in essere importanti misure d’intervento atte al contenimento dello stesso ed al ripristino della stabilità finanziaria. L’onda d’urto si è riversata sulle attività delle economie avanzate le quali hanno risentito negativamente delle esigenze di “riposizionamento di bilancio”, di famiglie e imprese. I mercati emergenti, per effetto a catena, non sono stati risparmiati, a causa del calo insolito dell’interscambio mondiale. A partire dal secondo trimestre del 2009 le misure di politica monetaria e fiscale, come pure i provvedimenti intesi a stabilizzare il settore finanziario, hanno iniziato a esplicare maggiori effetti; la crescita dell’economia mondiale ha mostrato segnali positivi, per effetto del miglioramento delle condizioni nei mercati finanziari, per la riduzione delle incertezze ed un parziale riequilibrio della perdita di fiducia degli operatori economici. Inoltre, pur rimanendo su livelli molto contenuti, anche l’interscambio mondiale, dopo essersi stabilizzato è tornato di segno positivo dopo il primo trimestre 2009. La seconda metà dell’anno fa registrare l’intensificazione della ripresa mondiale con una variazione del Pil che mostra a tratti segnali positivi. In tale ambito, però, occorre rilevare come i segnali di ripresa non siano stati omogenei nelle diverse economie, per fattori principalmente dovuti alla diversità delle misure di politica economica adottate oltre che dalla varietà strutturale delle economie; è interessante notare come nella fase di rallentamento si sia verificato un matching di tutte le economie avanzate, al contrario del mismatching riscontrato nella fase di ripresa. Nonostante i segnali favorevoli, la crescita dell’economia mondiale non è al riparo da timori di ricadute e rallentamenti; ciò è dovuto in particolar modo, ai dubbi circa la possibilità che la graduale rimozione delle misure straordinarie di politica monetaria e fiscale sia accompagnata da un recupero della domanda del settore privato. Impattano la verosimile correzione significativa dei bilanci delle famiglie in molti paesi, oltre che al possibile perdurare di vincoli finanziari per le imprese (BCE 2009). Con riferimento alla zona dell’euro nella media del 2009, il Pil ha registrato una contrazione del 4,0 per cento, mentre il tasso di inflazione si è collocato allo 0,3 per cento, a fronte di aspettative d’inflazione per il medio-lungo termine su livelli inferiori ma prossimi al 2 per cento. In questo contesto e in risposta al perdurare di pressioni inflazionistiche contenute, nei primi mesi del 2009 la BCE ha abbassato all’1 per cento il tasso sulle operazioni di rifinanziamento principali lasciando invariati i tassi d’interesse di riferimento nella rimanente parte dell’anno e, per dare il giusto impulso alla trasmissione della politica monetaria, ha continuato a sostenere il credito a seguito della sua brusca caduta. La linea seguita dal Consiglio direttivo, si è basata su misure volte a favorire condizioni di finanziamento migliori e l’afflusso di credito all’economia, per sostenere maggiormente quanto si sarebbe potuto ottenere con la sola manovra sui tassi d’interesse di riferimento della BCE; accanto a queste sono state adottate misure non convenzionali supplementari nel 2009, per fronteggiare le disfunzioni del mercato monetario e agevolare la propulsione dei nuovi tassi di riferimento ai tassi del mercato monetario e de dei prestiti bancari. L’obiettivo è stato quello di promuovere condizioni di finanziamento più favorevoli al flusso di credito. Particolare attenzione è stata rivolta alle eterogeneità specifiche della struttura finanziaria dell’economia dell’area dell’euro, dove le banche rivestono un’importante ruolo sia nel finanziamento, che nel mantenimento del flusso di credito all’economia. Il maggiore sostegno al credito ha tenuto conto delle aspettative al ribasso rispetto al prezzo, oltre che delle flessioni dei corsi delle materie prime e dell’indebolimento dell’attività economica globale. Le misure sopra citate hanno portato ad un sensibile miglioramento nell’area dell’euro delle condizioni di finanziamento nel corso dell’anno, come dimostrano soprattutto la riduzione dei differenziali a termine dei tassi di interesse del mercato monetario e la significativa diminuzione della volatilità complessiva dei mercati finanziari (BCE 2009). Nel corso dell’anno si sono iniziati a registrare segnali di stabilizzazione dell’attività economica mondiale e ciò ha portato la BCE al graduale rientro delle misure non convenzionali per evitare distorsioni connesse al loro mantenimento per un periodo eccessivo, ed al fine di fornire incentivi alle banche in relazione ai propri bilanci. La dismissione di queste misure, non ha vincolato l’Eurosistema nell’assicurare l’erogazione di liquidità al sistema bancario per agevolare l’offerta di credito a favore dell’economia dell’area e di fornire ulteriore stimolo alla ripresa. In Italia la dinamica del credito bancario ha iniziato a decelerare già nella prima metà del 2007, all’indomani di una espansione lunga quasi un quinquennio. La dinamica dei prestiti si è ancor più affievolita con lo scoppio della crisi, fino a divenire negativa alla metà del 2009. Il rallentamento registrato negli anni 2007-2009 è coinciso, oltre che con le turbolenze dei mercati dei capitali, anche con la debolezza del comparto immobiliare, le quali hanno portato al peggioramento del merito di credito della clientela bancaria con la conseguente caduta della spesa per consumi e investimenti. Alla luce del manifestarsi di una flessione negativa appare lecito chiedersi quali siano state le variabili di maggiore impatto sul credito: la manifestazione congiunta dei fattori sopra menzionati, rende arduo stabilire se, e in quale misura, la decelerazione dei prestiti rifletta un calo della domanda da parte di famiglie e imprese piuttosto che una restrizione dell’offerta da parte delle banche. Inoltre, alla luce del recepimento della normativa sull’adeguatezza del capitale bancario la complessità della valutazione del fenomeno, è ascrivibile anche all’impossibilità di definire in maniera netta se il peggioramento del mercato del credito prefiguri un rallentamento dell’offerta di prestiti dovuto alla riduzione della domanda o del peggioramento del rischio di insolvenza, oppure rifletta scelte e vincoli interni alle stesse banche. Il tema si inquadra nel dibattito tra accademici e Autorità di regolamentazione in un contesto caratterizzato da forti fermenti normativi e regolamentari. Notevole è la produzione scientifica che nel recente passato ha analizzato la questione, spaziando in differenti settori disciplinari e affrontando molteplici obiettivi di indagine a livello nazionale ed internazionale. Nell’ambito della recente crisi, la flessione negativa del credito è stata associata, soprattutto in prima battuta, al credit crunch. Da un attento studio della letteratura emerge, come l’unità di misura impiegata per accertare l’esistenza e l’eventuale ampiezza del credit crunch sia costituita dai dati sui prestiti, con l’assunzione che un loro andamento crescente rivela l’infondatezza del manifestarsi del fenomeno; ed inoltre, anche a fronte di una accertata riduzione, la contrazione creditizia non è associabile a fenomeni di credit crunch se, contestualmente, si manifesta una fase di crisi e rallentamento economico in misura pari o maggiore, poiché la contrazione dei prestiti è imputabile alla minore domanda di credito. Data la complessità della definizione del fenomeno, è risultato opportuno ricondurre la letteratura sul credit crunch a due filoni principali: uno macroeconomico, che misura il fenomeno attraverso l’indice di intensità creditizia (rapporto tra credito bancario e Pil nominale) riconoscendo il fenomeno solo quando la flessione del credito è di portata più ampia rispetto all’ampiezza della congiuntura negativa, e l’altro di tipo microeconomico, il quale imputa la flessione del credito a fattori endogeni al sistema finanziario. La riflessione sul tema della contrazione creditizia approfondisce quest’ultimo aspetto, nell’ipotesi di un’improvvisa riduzione della disponibilità di credito, indipendente dall’andamento dei tassi di interesse governati dalle banche centrali, e, pertanto, originato da fattori interni al sistema bancario e finanziario. Per una verifica delle determinanti del processo di generazione dei crediti stessi sono state utilizzate statistiche qualitative e quantitative sui crediti bancari. Gli studi condotti mediante questi tipi di indagine suggeriscono che la crisi finanziaria ha innescato una restrizione del credito che è indipendente dall’andamento della domanda. Il processo di selezione già in atto nell’erogazione dei prestiti, è stata poi accentuata dal crescente rischio di insolvenza delle controparti che le banche devono affrontare per il deterioramento dei bilanci di famiglie e imprese, causato dalla violenta recessione. Da un punto di vista meramente finanziario, i caratteri distintivi del credit crunch possono essere ricondotti alla: a) riduzione dell’offerta di credito non focalizzata su settori merceologici specifici o verso imprese classificate con un basso livello di rating; b) restrizione di credito che deve essere verificata ceteris paribus, in altre parole diventa rilevante la relazione esistente tra ammontare di credito richiesto ed ammontare di credito erogato. Per verificare gli effetti negativi che la crisi finanziaria ha avuto sull’accesso al credito e sulla flessione dell’offerta, è necessario indagare sulle variabili che caratterizzano specificamente il manifestarsi del credit crunch, al fine di appurare se nel mutato contesto congiunturale, normativo e strategico si siano palesati effettivamente fenomeni di credit crunch, ovvero, più verosimilmente il manifestarsi di un fenomeno assimilabile maggiormente a fenomeni di credit selection inteso come riduzione selettiva del credito. Obiettivo del presente lavoro è quello di valutare la rilevanza delle determinanti di restrizione intervenute dal lato dell’offerta di credito al fine di verificare quali siano i maggiori fattori che ne hanno causato la restrizione. Nello specifico, la research question, una volta definita la tipologia di contrazione manifestatasi (credit crunch o credit selection), tenta di dare una risposta circa la rilevanza dei fattori di restrizione intervenuti dal lato dell’offerta di credito, nonché l’efficacia/efficienza delle scelte effettuate dagli intermediari bancari. Nel confronto con le altre realtà europee ed internazionali, l’industria finanziaria nazionale si è dimostrata maggiormente resistente rispetto ai contraccolpi provenienti dalla crisi finanziaria: il XV Rapporto della Fondazione Rosselli (2010) attribuisce tale “successo” alla combinazione di due fattori fortemente presenti nel sistema bancario domestico, vale a dire la flessibilità delle tecnologie di credito e la diversità delle imprese bancarie. Ciò non toglie, però, il verificarsi di fenomeni di contrazione creditizia, seppur fisiologica, in seguito a periodi di espansione della politica creditizia e/o conseguentemente a periodi di forte tensione economica e finanziaria: la flessione del credito, nel contesto italiano, è associabile alla manifestazione congiunta di entrambi i fattori. In ogni caso, però, in un’ottica di sostanziale restringimento, non è possibile parlare di negazione o esclusione dal credito di soggetti che prima ne avevano accesso, ossia di razionamento del credito a soggetti meritevoli. Appare plausibile, dunque, investigare circa la dinamica che il credito ha assunto in seguito al manifestarsi di fenomeni di contrazione e chiedersi: qual è stata la differenza comportamentale degli intermediari bancari presenti su mercato nella selezione delle imprese alle quali erogare credito? Tale selezione è stata efficace in termini di assunzione e monitoraggio del rischio per gli intermediari? La riduzione di offerta di credito da parte dei gruppi maggiori è stata pienamente controbilanciata dalle banche minori sia in termini di quantità che in termini di qualità di credito? È indubbia la dicotomia esistente, con riferimento ai criteri di selezione per la concessione di credito, tra le banche che utilizzano il modello Originate to distribute e banche che invece sono maggiormente orientate al modello Originate to hold. Il modello Originate to hold (letteralmente origina e trattieni) si basa su metodologie di erogazione del credito ancorate alla gestione dell’attivo e del passivo che prevede il trattenimento in bilancio del credito di famiglie e imprese; per la banca, quindi, c’è un forte incentivo allo screening, nel momento della selezione nell’erogazione, ed al monitoring successivo. La gestione del rischio è legata al rapporto banca-cliente sia ex ante che ex post, vale a dire che l’erogazione del credito risulta legata alla conoscenza del cliente, per cui la banca baserà la sua valutazione sia prendendo a riferimento i risultati dell’elaborazione di hard information, sia di soft information. Tali tipi di relazioni sono spesso associate a strutture bancarie di minori dimensioni, che hanno un radicamento sul territorio e che hanno una più stretta relazione con la clientela conoscendone anche l’excursus storico. Nel modello Originate to distribute (letteralmente origina e distribuisci), invece, vengono meno gli incentivi che contribuiscono al corretto funzionamento dell’erogazione e gestione del credito, poiché la filosofia di base prevede l’utilizzo della cartolarizzazione per lo smobilizzo di crediti non trasferibili. Così, viene meno l’incentivo della banca sia allo screening che al monitoring: gli strumenti di credito cambiano morfologia, passando da prodotti ritagliati sul profilo del cliente a prodotti standardizzati. Attraverso l’utilizzo di questo modello, viene meno anche, l’esigenza di un contatto con il cliente portando la banca ad effettuare valutazioni solo attraverso l’elaborazione di hard information. Tali tipi di relazioni sono spesso associate a strutture bancarie maggiori e ai gruppi. Risulta allora nodale la relazione esistente tra banca e cliente per verificare e spiegare in quale misura si possa essere verificato un “flight to small” cioè una migrazione di tutti quei clienti che non hanno visto soddisfatta la propria richiesta di credito dalle grandi banche per differenti motivazioni, ed è ancora più interessante identificare quale tipologia di clientela può aver messo in atto tale tipo di “strategia” atta ad ottenere il credito necessario. Per contro è necessario tenere sempre a mente che le politiche di offerta di credito vedono distinguersi gli intermediari in relazione ai diversi vincoli che sono loro imposti quali, tra gli altri, robustezza patrimoniale, mitigazione del rischio di portafoglio, struttura dell’attivo e del passivo patrimoniale; per cui a parità di scadimento della qualità del credito o peggioramento del merito creditizio dei clienti, quali sono state le motivazioni che hanno spinto le banche minori ad erogare credito a tali soggetti? Tali quesiti sono posti al fine di modellizzare e definire qualitativamente le interrelazioni esistenti tra le politiche economiche, le politiche relazionali, le politiche di bilancio e la quantità di credito offerto; inoltre, si cerca di identificare, quali possano essere le azioni da intraprendere per: evitare che i clienti non soddisfatti e più rischiosi gravino sui bilanci delle banche di minore dimensione; mitigare gli effetti della contrazione creditizia al momento del suo manifestarsi. L’analisi qualitativa viene svolta prendendo a riferimento i risultati per l’Italia dell’indagine sul credito bancario (Bank Lending Survey di seguito Survey) condotta dalla BCE nell’area dell’Euro. Si è scelto di adottare un orientamento qualitativo, sia per l’apporto informativo strutturale all’approccio, sia per la difficoltà di reperimento di dati puntuali ed aggiornati. Dal gennaio del 2003 la BCE conduce l’indagine sul credito bancario nell’area dell’euro con il principale obiettivo di acquisire una visione più completa del ruolo del credito nel contesto del meccanismo di trasmissione monetaria, integrando in tal modo le informazioni su cui si fonda l’esercizio di analisi e valutazione alla base delle decisioni di politica monetaria. L’indagine, aggiornata quattro volte l’anno, è indirizzata ai funzionari di grado superiore competenti in materia di prestiti, quali i responsabili dei comitati del credito a livello di consiglio d’amministrazione o immediatamente inferiore. Il campione delle banche partecipanti all’indagine è costituito a livello europeo da oltre 120 banche, mentre per l’Italia partecipano otto gruppi creditizi che rappresentano oltre due terzi del mercato dei prestiti nel nostro paese. Le banche sono chiamate a valutare, da un lato, l’orientamento della propria istituzione per quanto concerne aspetti quali i criteri per l’approvazione dei prestiti nonché i termini e le condizioni previsti per la loro concessione e, dall’altro, i fattori che influenzano la domanda di credito. È stata rivolta particolare attenzione anche alla domanda di credito e sulle sue sostanziali determinanti, al fine di comprendere pienamente la dinamica dell’offerta di credito. Il questionario si compone di diciassette domande relative ai prestiti concessi alle imprese e alle famiglie: l’attenzione del lavoro è inquadrata sulle prime sette domande del questionario, le quali, focalizzandosi sul credito alle imprese, consentono di mettere a sistema le variabili che hanno impattato maggiormente sulla diminuzione dell’offerta di credito e le informazioni necessarie alla definizione della tipologia di contrazione che si è manifestata. L’ordine temporale della Survey, prende a riferimento il periodo intercorrente tra il 2003 ed il 2010: tale arco temporale consente di valutare l’impatto del nuovo framework normativo, quello della crisi finanziaria e reale, nonché gli effetti delle acquisizioni e fusioni bancarie iniziate nel nostro paese già negli anni novanta. L’analisi viene svolta osservando gli andamenti dei dati sia aggregati che disaggregati per i diversi riferimenti temporali. In particolare si osserva distintamente per l’offerta l’andamento degli aggregati riguardanti prestiti e linee di credito a favore delle imprese con particolare riferimento alla distinzione per scadenza, all’importanza dei criteri applicati dalla banca per l’approvazione del credito, termini e condizioni praticate; per la domanda il suo generale andamento nonché i suoi fattori caratterizzanti. L’ambito territoriale è stato ristretto a quello nazionale data la complessità delle informazioni e dei dati necessari per poter dare un riferimento e delle indicazioni esaustive. L’ampliamento a livello europeo e a livello internazionale riguarda i possibili sviluppi futuri della ricerca. Il lavoro, che si colloca all’interno del più generale filone di letteratura che si occupa del rapporto banca-impresa, apporta: una sistematizzazione della letteratura esistente in materia e produce una classificazione dei diversi fenomeni di restrizione dell’offerta di credito sia da un punto di vista macro che da un punto di vista microeconomico; una tassonomia delle principali variabili che manifestano i propri effetti sull’offerta di credito in relazione al mutato contesto normativo ed economico-finanziario esplicitandone i diversi pesi specifici; un focus sull’offerta di credito in Italia con l’individuazione delle cause che hanno portato la riduzione offerta e degli effetti prodotti. Pertanto, il lavoro si articola come segue. Nella prima parte si procede ad un inquadramento logico-concettuale della restrizione dell’offerta di credito analizzandone i diversi aspetti definitori e mettendo in evidenza sia i caratteri distintivi che quelli di contatto. La review della letteratura è stata affrontata effettuando a monte la scissione dall’analisi macroeconomica di quella microeconomica, accantonando la prima perché non funzionale all’obiettivo della tesi, e concentrandosi, invece, sugli aspetti finanziari del fenomeno tendendo a distinguere tra: crisi finanziarie e crisi bancarie, contrazione creditizia derivante dal relationship banking, razionamento del credito, credit crunch, selezione ed esclusione finanziaria. La prima parte del lavoro si conclude con una contrapposizione esplicativa delle distinzioni ed interrelazioni esistenti tra le diverse manifestazioni di restrizione dell’offerta di credito generalmente intesa. La seconda parte del lavoro, invece, concentra l’attenzione su una analisi descrittiva di domanda e offerta di credito in Italia delineando lo scenario e la situazione economico-finanziaria delle imprese e delle banche nazionali nell’arco temporale intercorrente tra il periodo pre-crisi ed il periodo post-crisi. Nei due capitoli che la compongono è affrontato l’impianto teorico e lo studio delle variabili che influenzano l’offerta e la domanda di credito in Italia; al fine di definire un quadro esaustivo dell’offerta è risultato necessario affrontare lo studio della domanda di credito dal parte delle Piccole e medie imprese italiane (in seguito Pmi), poiché proprio per queste, il canale di finanziamento bancario risulta l’unica fonte di finanziamento esterno, risultando difficile ed eccessivamente oneroso ricorrere ad altre forme di finanziamento. Inoltre, ne vengono analizzate le determinanti, per poter esaminare l’andamento della domanda di credito. Per questa via, si fornisce una panoramica generale sulla situazione economico finanziaria delle Pmi, per poi osservare e definire l’impatto della crisi finanziaria del 2008 sulle stesse. Lo studio dell’offerta di credito delle banche italiane, è stato affrontato prendendo in esame distintamente le determinanti che impattano sul quantitativo e sulle politiche di credito adottate dai diversi istituti di credito. Nello specifico vengono approfonditi i fattori concernenti l’impatto del framework normativo, della dimensione bancaria, della politica monetaria e della liquidità dei mercati. Si sono analizzati inoltre gli impulsi sull’offerta provenienti dalle crisi bancarie e dalle crisi finanziarie. In quest’ottica è fornito un approfondimento sulla crisi del 2008. Per un’analisi esaustiva dell’offerta si è ritenuto opportuno trattare anche gli interventi pubblici di sostegno al credito. Sono forniti in ultimo brevi cenni su Basilea 3. Il capitolo 3 si conclude con considerazioni inerenti l’andamento dell’offerta di credito. La terza parte del lavoro, composta dal capitolo 4, è dedicata all’analisi empirica, che viene condotta attraverso una analisi qualitativa dell’offerta di credito in Italia dal 2003 al 2010 e all’esposizione dei risultati dello studio. In fine, vengono esposte le principali conclusioni relative alla ricerca evidenziando quali siano le maggiori problematiche aperte e le possibili prospettive e proposte per il futuro.
La contrazione del credito durante la crisi finanziaria: credit crunch o credit selection? Una disamina sull’andamento del credito bancario italiano tra framework normativo e crisi finanziaria / Leo, Sabrina. - ELETTRONICO. - (2011 Jun 01). [10805/2158]
La contrazione del credito durante la crisi finanziaria: credit crunch o credit selection? Una disamina sull’andamento del credito bancario italiano tra framework normativo e crisi finanziaria
LEO, SABRINA
01/06/2011
Abstract
The intensification of the financial turmoil that accompanied the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, resulted in a substantial worldwide increase in the levels of perceived uncertainty in all asset classes. The main developments during the period involved in the first instance the persistence of significant dysfunction in financial markets impacting on levels of confidence and uncertainty, and subsequently on economic activity: worldwide it has held steady at very weak levels following a sudden contraction of all major economic areas. The paventarsi onset of systemic risk has urged governments and central banks around the world to put in place major intervention measures aimed at containing the same and to the restoration of financial stability. The shock wave is poured on the activities of the advanced economies which have been adversely affected by the needs of "repositioning budget" for families and businesses. Emerging markets to chain effect, have not been spared, because of the unusual drop in global trade. From the second quarter of 2009, the measures of monetary and fiscal policy, as well as measures to stabilize the financial sector, have begun to exert a greater effect; the growth of the world economy has shown positive signs, due to the improvement of the conditions in the financial markets, to reduce uncertainty and a partial rebalancing of the loss of confidence of economic agents. Also, while remaining at very low levels, even global trade, have stabilized after he returned a positive sign after the first quarter of 2009. Ago The second half of the year to record the intensification of the global recovery with GDP growth of showing sometimes positive signs. In this context, however, it should be noted that the signs of recovery were not homogeneous in the different economies, factors mainly due to the diversity of economic policy measures taken in addition to the structural diversity of the economies; is interesting to note that the slowdown has occurred a matching of all the advanced economies, in contrast to the mismatch encountered in the recovery phase. Despite the positive signs, the growth of the world economy is not immune from fears of relapses and slowing down; This is due in particular, to the doubts about the possibility that the gradual removal of the extraordinary measures of monetary and fiscal policy should be accompanied by a recovery in private sector demand. Impacting the likely significant correction of household budgets in many countries, as well as the possible continuation of financial constraints for firms (ECB 2009). With reference to the euro area average in 2009, GDP has declined by 4.0 per cent, while the rate of inflation stood at 0.3 per cent, compared with expectations of inflation over the medium long-term rates below, but close to 2 percent. In this context and in response to the persistence of inflationary pressures in the early months of 2009, the ECB lowered to 1 per cent and the rate on the main refinancing operations, leaving interest rates unchanged reference in the remainder of this year and , to give the right impetus to the transmission of monetary policy continued to support the credit as a result of its abrupt fall. The line taken by the Governing Council, was based on measures to promote better financing conditions and the flow of credit to the economy, to support more than could have been achieved with the single maneuver on interest rates ECB ; alongside these measures have been taken additional unconventional in 2009, to address the malfunctioning of the money market and facilitate the propulsion of reference rates to money market rates and bank lending de. The goal was to promote more favorable financing terms to the flow of credit. Particular attention has been paid to the specific heterogeneity of the financial structure of the euro area economy, where banks play an important role both in financing and in maintaining the flow of credit to the economy. The enhanced credit support has taken into account the expectations downward with respect to the price, as well as the fall in commodity prices and the weakening of global economic activity. The above measures have resulted in a significant improvement in financing conditions in the euro area during the year, as evidenced by the shortening of differential-term interest rates in the money market and the significant decrease in the overall volatility of financial markets (ECB 2009). During the year we began to record signs of stabilization in global economic activity, and this has led to the gradual easing of the ECB non-standard measures to avoid distortions associated with maintaining them for an excessive period, and in order to provide incentives to banks in relation to their balance sheets. The disposal of these measures has not bound by the Eurosystem in ensuring the provision of liquidity to the banking system to facilitate the supply of credit to the economy of the area and to provide further stimulus to recovery. In Italy, the bank lending has started to decelerate in the first half of 2007, following a long expansion nearly five years. The dynamics of the loans has been further weakened by the outbreak of the crisis, to become negative in mid-2009. The slowdown in 2007-2009 coincided not only with the turbulence in the capital markets, with the weakness of the real estate sector, which led to the deterioration of the creditworthiness of bank customers with a consequent drop in consumer spending and investment. In the light of the occurrence of a negative deflection appears legitimate to ask what were the variables with the greatest impact on credit: the joint event of the above factors makes it difficult to determine whether, and to what extent, the deceleration of loans reflects a decline in demand from households and business rather than a restriction of supply by banks. Moreover, in light of the transposition of legislation on the adequacy of bank capital to the complexity of the evaluation of the phenomenon, it is also due to the impossibility to define sharply if the deterioration of the credit market foreshadow a slowdown in the supply of loans due to the reduction of the application or the worsening of the risk of insolvency, or reflect choices and internal constraints to the banks themselves. The issue is part of the debate among academics and regulatory authorities in a context characterized by strong legal and regulatory enzymes. Notable is the scientific production in the recent past has analyzed the issue, ranging in different disciplines and addressing multiple objectives of investigation nationally and internationally. As part of the recent crisis, the decline has been associated with negative credit, especially in the first instance, to the credit crunch. From a careful study of the literature shows, as the unit of measurement used to determine the existence and possible extent of the credit crunch is made up of the data on loans, with the assumption that their upward trend reveals the groundlessness of the occurrence of the phenomenon; and moreover, even in the face of a determined reduction, credit contraction is not associated with phenomena of a credit crunch if, at the same time, it manifests a phase of crisis and economic slowdown in an amount equal to or greater, since the contraction of loans due to the lower demand for credit. Given the complexity of the definition of the phenomenon, it appeared appropriate to bring the literature on the credit crunch in two main areas: one macro, which measures the intensity of the phenomenon through the credit index (the ratio of bank credit and nominal GDP) recognizing the phenomenon only when the decline of the credit is broader than the width of the downturn, and other microeconomic, which imputes the downturn in the credit factors endogenous to the financial system. The reflection on the theme of the credit crunch deepens the latter, in the event of a sudden reduction in the availability of credit, independent of interest rates governed by central banks, and therefore originated from factors internal to the banking system and finance. For an examination of the determinants of the process of generation of the receivables have been used qualitative and quantitative statistics on bank loans. The studies conducted by these types of investigation suggest that the financial crisis has triggered a credit crunch that is independent from the application. The selection process already in place in the provision of loans, was then compounded by the growing risk of a counterparty defaulting banks are faced with the deterioration of the balance sheets of households and businesses, caused by the violent recession. From a purely financial point of view, the distinctive characters of the credit crunch can be attributed to: a) reduce the supply of credit is not focused on specific sectors or firms to be classified with a low rating; b) restriction of credit that must be verified ceteris paribus, in other words, becomes relevant relationship between the amount of credit requested and the amount of credit granted. To verify the negative effects that the financial crisis has had on access to credit and the decline of the offer, it is necessary to investigate the variables that characterize specifically the emergence of the credit crunch, in order to ascertain whether in the changed economic environment, regulatory and policy they are actually made manifest phenomena of the credit crunch, or, more likely the occurrence of a phenomenon similar to most phenomena of credit selection understood as selective reduction of the credit. The objective of this work is to evaluate the importance of the determinants of restriction occurred on the supply side of credit in order to ascertain what are the major factors that have caused the restriction. Specifically, the research question, once defined the type of contraction displayed (credit crunch or credit selection), tries to give an answer concerning the relevance of factors intervened restriction on the supply side of credit, as well as the effectiveness / efficiency the choices made by bank intermediaries. In comparison with other European and international, the domestic financial industry has proven to be more resistant than the setbacks from the financial crisis: the fifteenth report of the Fondazione Rosselli (2010) attributes this "success" to the combination of two factors strongly present in the domestic banking system, namely the flexibility of the technologies of credit and the diversity of their businesses. This does not mean, however, the occurrence of phenomena of the credit crunch, although physiological, following periods of expansion of credit policy and / or subsequently in periods of strong economic and financial stress: the decline of the credit, in the Italian context, is associated the joint event of both factors. In any case, however, in view of substantial shrinkage, it is not possible to speak of denial or exclusion from the credit of subjects before they had access, that is rationing of credit to deserving subjects. It seems likely, therefore, to investigate about the dynamics that credit has taken following the occurrence of the phenomenon of contraction and ask what was the difference in behavior of the banking intermediaries present on the market in the selection of undertakings to which extend credit? The selection was effective in terms of recruitment and monitoring of the risk for intermediaries? The reduction in credit supply by the major groups has been fully offset by smaller banks in terms of both quantity and quality of credit? There is no doubt the dichotomy, with reference to the selection criteria for the granting of credit between banks that use the Originate to distribute model and instead banks that are more oriented to the model Originate to hold. The model Originate to Hold (literally originates and hold) is based on methods of lending anchored to the management of assets and liabilities in the balance sheet which provides for the retention of credit for households and businesses; for the bank, therefore, there is a strong incentive to screening, at the time of selection in the provision, and the subsequent monitoring. Risk management is linked to the bank-customer relationship both ex ante and ex post, ie that the supply of credit is tied to the knowledge of the customer, for which the bank will base its evaluation is taking as a reference the results of 'processing of hard information, whether soft information. These types of relationships are often associated with banking facilities of small businesses that have a strong local presence and have a closer relationship with customers even knowing the historical overview. In Originate to distribute model (literally originate and distribute), however, are less incentives that contribute to the proper functioning of disbursement and management of credit, because the basic philosophy involves the use of securitization to dispose of non-transferable credits. Thus, there is less incentive for the bank is that the screening monitoring: credit instruments morphology change, going from products tailored to the customer's profile to standardized products. Through the use of this model is also less, the need for contact with the customer by bringing the bank to carry out assessments only through the development of hard information. These types of relationships are often associated with major banking structures and groups. It is then the nodal relationship between bank and customer to verify and explain to what extent it can be shown to a "flight to small" that is a migration of all customers who have not seen satisfied his request for credit from major banks for different reasons and it is even more interesting to identify which type of customer may have put in place this kind of "strategy" aimed at obtaining the necessary credit. On the other hand you must always keep in mind that offer policies to see credit intermediaries stand in relation to the various constraints that are imposed on them such as, among others, capital strength, risk mitigation portfolio, the structure of assets and liabilities sheet; for which a comparable decline in credit quality or a deterioration in the creditworthiness of customers, what were the reasons that led the smaller banks to provide credit to these parties? These questions are asked in order to model and qualitatively define the interrelationships between economic, relational policies, fiscal policies, and the amount of credit offered; In addition, it seeks to identify what might be the actions to: ensure that customers are not satisfied and riskier a burden on the budgets of smaller banks; mitigate the effects of the credit crunch at the time of its occurrence. The qualitative analysis is carried out with reference to the results of the bank lending Italy (hereinafter Survey of Bank Lending Survey) conducted by the ECB in the euro area. It was decided to adopt a qualitative approach, and for the contribution of information structural approach, both to the difficulty in obtaining accurate and updated data. Since January 2003, the ECB conducts the survey on bank lending in the euro area with the main objective to gain a more complete view of the role of credit in the context of the monetary transmission mechanism, thus complementing the information on which underlying the exercise of analysis and evaluation at the base of the monetary policy decisions. The survey, which is updated four times a year, is aimed at senior officials responsible for loans, such as those responsible for the credit committees at the level of the board of directors or immediately below. The sample of banks participating in the survey is made at the European level by more than 120 banks, while for Italy together with eight banking groups representing more than two-thirds of the loan market in our country. Banks are required to assess, on the one hand, the orientation of the institution with regard to issues such as the criteria for the approval of the loans and the terms and conditions laid down for the granting thereof and, secondly, the factors that influence the demand for credit. It was given particular attention to the demand for credit and its major determinants, in order to fully understand the dynamics of the supply of credit. The questionnaire consists of seventeen questions related to loans to businesses and households: the focus of the work is framed on the first seven questions in the questionnaire, which, focusing on lending to businesses, to allow you to put the system variables that have an impact more on reducing the supply of credit and the information necessary to define the type of contraction that occurred. The temporal order of the Survey, while based on the period between 2003 and 2010: this period of time allows you to assess the impact of the new regulatory framework, that of financial and real crisis, as well as the effects of bank mergers and acquisitions started in our country already in the nineties. The analysis is carried out by observing the trends that disaggregated data is aggregated for different points in time. In particular it is noted separately for the supply of aggregates trends concerning loans and lines of credit in favor of firms with particular reference to the distinction by maturity, of the importance of the criteria applied by the bank to credit approval, terms and conditions practiced; the demand for its overall performance as well as its characterizing factors. The territorial scope was restricted to the national level given the complexity of the information and data necessary to provide a comprehensive reference and guidance. The expansion at European and international level concerns the possible future developments of the research. The work, which is part of the broader body of literature that deals with the bank-firm relationship, provides: a systematic literature review on the subject and produces a classification of the various phenomena of restriction of credit supply from both a macro point of view than from a microeconomic point of view; a taxonomy of the main variables that manifest their effects on the supply of credit in relation to the changed regulatory environment, economic and financial explicitly stating the different specific gravities; a focus on the supply of credit in Italy with the identification of the causes that led to the reduction in supply and the effects produced. Therefore, the paper is organized as follows. In the first part we proceed to a logical and conceptual framework of the tightening of credit by analyzing the different definitional aspects and highlighting the distinctive characteristics is that those contacts. The literature review was addressed by performing upstream splitting macro-economic analysis of the microeconomic setting aside the first because it serves the purpose of the thesis, and focusing instead on the financial aspects of the phenomenon tend to distinguish between: the financial crisis and banking crisis, credit crunch stemming from relationship banking, credit rationing, credit crunch, financial exclusion and selection. The first part of the work concludes with a contrasting explanation of the distinctions and interrelations between the various manifestations of tightening of credit generally understood. The second part of the work, however, focuses on a descriptive analysis of supply and demand for credit in Italy outlining the scenario and the economic-financial situation of enterprises and domestic banks in the time interval between the pre-crisis period and the post-crisis period. In the two chapters that compose it is addressed and the theoretical study of the variables that influence the supply of and demand for credit in Italy; in order to establish a complete picture of the offer was necessary to deal with the study of the demand for credit from the part of small and medium Italian enterprises (hereinafter SMEs), because just to these, the channel bank financing is the only source of external financing, making it difficult and too costly to resort to other forms of financing. In addition, it analyzes the determinants, in order to examine the trend in the demand for credit. In this way, it provides a general overview of the economic and financial situation of SMEs, only to observe and assess the impact of the financial crisis of 2008 on the same. The study of credit supply of Italian banks, has been addressed by considering separately the determinants that affect the quantity and the credit policies adopted by different lenders. Specifically, are investigated factors relating to the impact of the regulatory framework, the size of banking, monetary policy and liquidity of the markets. They also analyzed the pulses on the supply from the banking crises and financial crises. In this view there is provided an insight into the crisis of 2008. Offer more detailed analysis, it was considered appropriate to treat even the public interventions in support of the claim. Are provided in the last brief on Basel 3. Chapter 3 concludes with considerations of the development of the supply of credit. The third part of the work, composed of Chapter 4 is devoted to the empirical analysis, which is conducted through a qualitative analysis of credit supply in Italy from 2003 to 2010 and the exposure of the study results. Finally, the main conclusions are presented concerning research highlighting what are the major open issues and possible prospects and proposals for the future.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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