BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Approved use of intravenous alteplase for ischemic stroke offers net benefit. Pooled randomized controlled trial analysis suggests additional patients could benefit but others be harmed with treatment initiated beyond 4·5 h after stroke onset. We proposed prognostic scoring methods to identify a strategy for patient selection. METHODS: We selected 500 patients treated by intravenous alteplase and 500 controls from Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive, matching modified Rankin score outcomes to those from pooled randomized controlled trial 4·5-6 h data. We ranked patients by prognostic score. We chose limits to optimize our sample for a net treatment benefit significant at P = 0·01 by Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test and by ordinal regression. For validation, we had these applied to the pooled randomized controlled trial data for 4·5-6 h, testing for net benefit by Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test, ordinal regression, and also by dichotomized outcomes: modified Rankin score 0-1, mortality and parenchymal hemorrhage type 2 bleeds. All analyses were adjusted for age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. RESULTS: In the training dataset, limits of 56-95 on a prognostic score retained 714 patients in whom there was net benefit significant at P = 0·01. When applied to the 1120 patients in the pooled randomized controlled trial 4·5-6 h dataset, score limits of 56-95 retained 711 patients and gave odds ratio for improved modified Rankin score distribution of 1·13, 95% confidence interval 0·87-1·47, Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel P = 0·89. More patients achieved modified Rankin score 0-1 (odds ratio 1·44, 1·02-2·05, P = 0·04) but mortality and parenchymal hemorrhage type 2 bleeds were increased: odds ratio 1·56, 1·01-2·40, P = 0·04; odds ratio 15·6, 3·7-65·8, P = 0·0002, respectively. CONCLUSION: Selection of patients between 4·5 and 6 h based on simple clinical measures failed to deliver a population in whom the alteplase effect would be safe and effective. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2013 World Stroke Organization.
Selection for delayed intravenous alteplase treatment based on a prognostic score / R. L., F., K. R., L., E., B., G., B., G. W., A., S. M., D., G. A., D., J. C., G., W., H., M., K., R., V.K., A., S., Toni, D., A., A., P. W., B., L., C., J., C., H. C., D., M., F., B., G., et al.. - In: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF STROKE. - ISSN 1747-4930. - ELETTRONICO. - (2013). [10.1111/j.1747-4949.2012.00943.x]
Selection for delayed intravenous alteplase treatment based on a prognostic score.
TONI, Danilo;
2013
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Approved use of intravenous alteplase for ischemic stroke offers net benefit. Pooled randomized controlled trial analysis suggests additional patients could benefit but others be harmed with treatment initiated beyond 4·5 h after stroke onset. We proposed prognostic scoring methods to identify a strategy for patient selection. METHODS: We selected 500 patients treated by intravenous alteplase and 500 controls from Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive, matching modified Rankin score outcomes to those from pooled randomized controlled trial 4·5-6 h data. We ranked patients by prognostic score. We chose limits to optimize our sample for a net treatment benefit significant at P = 0·01 by Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test and by ordinal regression. For validation, we had these applied to the pooled randomized controlled trial data for 4·5-6 h, testing for net benefit by Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test, ordinal regression, and also by dichotomized outcomes: modified Rankin score 0-1, mortality and parenchymal hemorrhage type 2 bleeds. All analyses were adjusted for age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. RESULTS: In the training dataset, limits of 56-95 on a prognostic score retained 714 patients in whom there was net benefit significant at P = 0·01. When applied to the 1120 patients in the pooled randomized controlled trial 4·5-6 h dataset, score limits of 56-95 retained 711 patients and gave odds ratio for improved modified Rankin score distribution of 1·13, 95% confidence interval 0·87-1·47, Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel P = 0·89. More patients achieved modified Rankin score 0-1 (odds ratio 1·44, 1·02-2·05, P = 0·04) but mortality and parenchymal hemorrhage type 2 bleeds were increased: odds ratio 1·56, 1·01-2·40, P = 0·04; odds ratio 15·6, 3·7-65·8, P = 0·0002, respectively. CONCLUSION: Selection of patients between 4·5 and 6 h based on simple clinical measures failed to deliver a population in whom the alteplase effect would be safe and effective. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2013 World Stroke Organization.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
