The input for the seismic risk analysis can be expressed with probabilistic maps of perhaps relevant parameters or with a description of “groundshaking scenarios”. The probabilistic approach, unavoidably based upon rough assumptions and models (e.g. recurrence and attenuation laws), can be misleading, as it cannot take into account, with satisfactory accuracy, some of the most important aspects like rupture process, directivity and site effects. This is evidenced by the comparison of recent recordings with the values predicted by the probabilistic methods. A scenario-based, deterministic approach should be preferred in view of the limited seismological data, of the local irregularity of the occurrence of strong earthquakes, and of the multiscale seismicity model, that is capable to reconcile two apparently conflicting ideas: the Characteristic Earthquake concept and the Self Organized Criticality paradigm. An advanced procedure for ground motion modelling, capable of synthesizing the seismic ground motion from basic understanding of fault mechanism and seismic wave propagation, is applied to several case studies. Where the numerical modeling is successfully compared with records, the synthetic seismograms permit the microzoning, based upon a set of possible scenario earthquakes. Where no recordings are available the synthetic signals can be used to estimate the ground motion without having to wait for a strong earthquake to occur (pre-disaster microzonation). In both cases the use of modeling is necessary since the so-called local site effects can be strongly dependent upon the properties of the seismic source and can be properly defined only by means of envelopes.

Realistic seismic ground motion modelling: an interim solution for hazard assessment / Panza, G. F.; Romanelli, F.; Vaccari, F.; Decanini, Luis Domingo; Mollaioli, Fabrizio. - STAMPA. - (2003), pp. 87-112. (Intervento presentato al convegno 8th World Seminar on Seismic Isolation, Energy Dissipation and Active Vibrations Control of Structures (GLIS 2003) tenutosi a Yerevan, Armenia nel October 6-10).

Realistic seismic ground motion modelling: an interim solution for hazard assessment

DECANINI, Luis Domingo;MOLLAIOLI, Fabrizio
2003

Abstract

The input for the seismic risk analysis can be expressed with probabilistic maps of perhaps relevant parameters or with a description of “groundshaking scenarios”. The probabilistic approach, unavoidably based upon rough assumptions and models (e.g. recurrence and attenuation laws), can be misleading, as it cannot take into account, with satisfactory accuracy, some of the most important aspects like rupture process, directivity and site effects. This is evidenced by the comparison of recent recordings with the values predicted by the probabilistic methods. A scenario-based, deterministic approach should be preferred in view of the limited seismological data, of the local irregularity of the occurrence of strong earthquakes, and of the multiscale seismicity model, that is capable to reconcile two apparently conflicting ideas: the Characteristic Earthquake concept and the Self Organized Criticality paradigm. An advanced procedure for ground motion modelling, capable of synthesizing the seismic ground motion from basic understanding of fault mechanism and seismic wave propagation, is applied to several case studies. Where the numerical modeling is successfully compared with records, the synthetic seismograms permit the microzoning, based upon a set of possible scenario earthquakes. Where no recordings are available the synthetic signals can be used to estimate the ground motion without having to wait for a strong earthquake to occur (pre-disaster microzonation). In both cases the use of modeling is necessary since the so-called local site effects can be strongly dependent upon the properties of the seismic source and can be properly defined only by means of envelopes.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11573/498181
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