As part of a Global Flood project, we assess the conditions that lead to the changing frequency and spatial structure of extreme daily precipitation events in this region for the 6 month winter period from Oct-March. Spatial and temporal trends in the ECA&D data for this region are analyzed in the precipitation frequency and intensity for events exceeding the 99th percentile of daily precipitation. The associated climatic conditions (SST, atmospheric circulation patterns, canonical moisture sources and moisture transport patterns) are analyzed using re-analysis data to establish the concurrent and season ahead conditions associated with the leading space and time patterns. Analogs of these patterns are investigated for GCM integrations for future climate (seasonal forecasts as well as IPCC scenarios) to assess potential predictability and outcomes.
Extreme precipitation in the south and south-east Mediterranean climate structure and predictability / Cioffi, Francesco; U., Lall; E., Volodin; C., Karamperidou; R., Purini. - STAMPA. - (2011). (Intervento presentato al convegno - 3° Convegno Internazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia del Mediterraneo tenutosi a Castellaneta marina nel 6-9 giugno 2011).
Extreme precipitation in the south and south-east Mediterranean climate structure and predictability
CIOFFI, Francesco;
2011
Abstract
As part of a Global Flood project, we assess the conditions that lead to the changing frequency and spatial structure of extreme daily precipitation events in this region for the 6 month winter period from Oct-March. Spatial and temporal trends in the ECA&D data for this region are analyzed in the precipitation frequency and intensity for events exceeding the 99th percentile of daily precipitation. The associated climatic conditions (SST, atmospheric circulation patterns, canonical moisture sources and moisture transport patterns) are analyzed using re-analysis data to establish the concurrent and season ahead conditions associated with the leading space and time patterns. Analogs of these patterns are investigated for GCM integrations for future climate (seasonal forecasts as well as IPCC scenarios) to assess potential predictability and outcomes.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
