Flash flood events are floods characterised by a very rapid response of basins to storms, often resulting in loss of life and property damage. Due to the specific space-time scale of this type of flood, the lead time available for triggering civil protection measures is typically short. Rainfall threshold values specify the amount of precipitation for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given river cross section. If the threshold values are exceeded, it can produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk. It is therefore possible to directly compare the observed or forecasted precipitation with critical reference values, without running online real-time forecasting systems. The focus of this study is the Mignone River basin, located in Central Italy. The critical rainfall threshold values are evaluated by minimising a utility function based on the informative entropy concept and by using a simulation approach based on radar data. The study concludes with a system performance analysis, in terms of correctly issued warnings, false alarms and missed alarms.

Rainfall threshold definition using an entropy decision approach and radar data / Montesarchio, V.; Ridolfi, E.; Russo, F.; Napolitano, F.. - In: NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES. - ISSN 1561-8633. - ELETTRONICO. - 11:7(2011), pp. 2061-2074. [10.5194/nhess-11-2061-2011]

Rainfall threshold definition using an entropy decision approach and radar data

V. Montesarchio
;
E. Ridolfi;F. Russo;F. Napolitano
2011

Abstract

Flash flood events are floods characterised by a very rapid response of basins to storms, often resulting in loss of life and property damage. Due to the specific space-time scale of this type of flood, the lead time available for triggering civil protection measures is typically short. Rainfall threshold values specify the amount of precipitation for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given river cross section. If the threshold values are exceeded, it can produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk. It is therefore possible to directly compare the observed or forecasted precipitation with critical reference values, without running online real-time forecasting systems. The focus of this study is the Mignone River basin, located in Central Italy. The critical rainfall threshold values are evaluated by minimising a utility function based on the informative entropy concept and by using a simulation approach based on radar data. The study concludes with a system performance analysis, in terms of correctly issued warnings, false alarms and missed alarms.
2011
disaster management; warning system; rainfall; entropy; flood forecasting; decision analysis; performance assessment; discharge; precipitation intensity; flash flood; flood damage; threshold
01 Pubblicazione su rivista::01a Articolo in rivista
Rainfall threshold definition using an entropy decision approach and radar data / Montesarchio, V.; Ridolfi, E.; Russo, F.; Napolitano, F.. - In: NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES. - ISSN 1561-8633. - ELETTRONICO. - 11:7(2011), pp. 2061-2074. [10.5194/nhess-11-2061-2011]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11573/420525
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