Probability of collapse of monumental buildings under seismic loads

This paper illustrates a specially written computer program that permits to apply the limit analysis technique in combination with the “macroelement” approach, assuming random properties of the building material, and to evaluate the probabilities of collapse of monumental buildings under horizontal loads. Both theorems of “probabilistic limit analysis” (i.e. the “static” and the “kinematical” theorem) are used, so that upper and lower bounds (and also an interpolated approximation) to the probability of collapse of each macroelement and of the whole building under given horizontal loads can be calculated.