Serum elements and oxidative status in clinically isolated syndromes Imbalance and predictivity

Background: Metals are suspected of being involved in the pathogenesis of various neurologic diseases. We previously found a complex imbalance in serum chemical elements and oxidative status in patients with clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS). Objective: To understand whether this imbalance affects people with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and, if so, whether it predicts conversion to CDMS. Methods: We studied 22 chemical elements and the oxidative status in 49 patients with CIS, 49 patients with CDMS, and 49 healthy donors (HD). Univariate and multivariate approaches were used to identify profiles for each group. A logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictive potential of baseline data (elements, oxidative status, and MRI findings) for conversion to CDMS over 36 months. Results: Several elements and oxidative status values differed significantly among the 3 groups. Discriminant analysis revealed a major contribution of Ca, Fe, Sn, Zn, serum antioxidant capacity, and serum oxidative status, which resulted in distinct profiles (the prediction of group membership was 96% [cross-validated 92%] for HD, 92% [cross-validated 92%] for CDMS, and 90% [cross-validated 86%] for CIS). A weighted combination of element concentrations and oxidative status values, adjusting for all other predictors, would predict a reduction in the risk of conversion to CDMS within 3 years (odds ratio 0.37; 95% confidence interval 0.18-0.76; p = 0.007), thereby proving more effective than MRI at baseline. Conclusions: The peculiar imbalance in serum elements and oxidative status that characterizes patients with CIS and may predict conversion to CDMS warrants studies on larger sample sizes. Neurology (R) 2011; 76: 549-555