Probabilistic assessment of earthquake losses and safety of existing structures

This paper presents a probabilistic method for seismic loss estimation. The method accounts for the dependence of the structural response on the ground-motion and on the mechanical properties through an approximate linear response model based on a limited number of recorded ground-motions. This response model is the key element in keeping affordable the procedure that uses simulation to compute the distribution of monetary loss. The main advantage of the formulation is that all sources of uncertainty and correlation among loss terms are accounted for. The procedure is illustrated by way of an application to a RC plane frame.