Seismic loss estimation by efficient simulation

This paper presents a probabilistic method for seismic loss estimation. The method accounts for the dependence of the structural response on the ground-motion and on the mechanical properties through an approximate response model based on a limited number of nonlinear structural analyses using recorded ground-motions. This response model is the key element in keeping affordable the procedure that uses simulation to compute the distribution of monetary loss. The main advantage of the formulation is that all sources of uncertainty and correlation among loss terms are accounted for. The procedure is illustrated by way of an application to an RC arch bridge. The application highlights the need for further research on models that describe states of increasing damage in terms of repair actions.