Breaking the Cycle of Demographic Decline: could Early Childhood Education and Care services be a Path to Revitalization?

Depopulation has become a persistent challenge in many developed regions, particularly in inner areas where limited access to services and job opportunities reduces territorial attractiveness. The provision of Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC) services is increasingly recognized as a key component of social infrastructure that can mitigate these dynamics. This study investigates the extent to which the expansion of ECEC facilities influences residential mobility patterns. Using administrative data covering all Italian municipalities between 2014 and 2022, we adopt a non-parametric Difference-in-Differences design capable of handling staggered treatment adoption to estimate the causal effects of ECEC expansion on internal migration. We address two key empirical challenges to ensure an unbiased counterfactual by excluding (i) units indirectly affected by the treatment, and (ii) units that become treated during the post-treatment period. Results reveal marked spatial heterogeneity: while childcare provision has no significant effect in well-connected areas, in inner area municipalities it produces a rise in net internal migration concentrated in the year after the facility opening. Yet this effect soon fades, suggesting that ECEC can support — but not by itself sustain — long-term demographic revitalization.