Official statistics are undergoing a significant transformation, as national statistical institutes transition from traditional single-source data production systems to integrated systems of statistical registers combining administrative, census, and survey data. The resulting multisource register-based estimates are prone to multiple interacting sources of error, yet rigorous scalable frameworks for quantifying their accuracy remain underdeveloped. This work discusses and validates a global measure of error assessment for such multisource register-based statistics. Focusing on two central sources of uncertainty-sampling and modelling-we derive an analytical solution that accurately approximates the global error of mass-imputation procedures under a multinomial logistic model. The proposed measure is interpretable, flexible, and computationally scalable, enabling on-the-fly accuracy quantification for user-defined, unplanned domain-specific statistics on population totals. Its validity is established theoretically and confirmed through simulation studies. An application to education data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics is presented.

Scalable generalized accuracy estimation for multisource register-based official statistics / Deliu, N., D Falorsi, P., Falorsi, S., Chianella, D., Alleva, G.. - In: JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY. SERIES A. STATISTICS IN SOCIETY. - ISSN 0964-1998. - (2026). [10.1093/jrsssa/qnag107]

Scalable generalized accuracy estimation for multisource register-based official statistics

Nina Deliu
Primo
;
Stefano Falorsi;Diego Chianella;Giorgio Alleva
2026

Abstract

Official statistics are undergoing a significant transformation, as national statistical institutes transition from traditional single-source data production systems to integrated systems of statistical registers combining administrative, census, and survey data. The resulting multisource register-based estimates are prone to multiple interacting sources of error, yet rigorous scalable frameworks for quantifying their accuracy remain underdeveloped. This work discusses and validates a global measure of error assessment for such multisource register-based statistics. Focusing on two central sources of uncertainty-sampling and modelling-we derive an analytical solution that accurately approximates the global error of mass-imputation procedures under a multinomial logistic model. The proposed measure is interpretable, flexible, and computationally scalable, enabling on-the-fly accuracy quantification for user-defined, unplanned domain-specific statistics on population totals. Its validity is established theoretically and confirmed through simulation studies. An application to education data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics is presented.
2026
uncertainty quantification; generalized mean squared error; multisource official statistics; education data; statistical registers
01 Pubblicazione su rivista::01a Articolo in rivista
Scalable generalized accuracy estimation for multisource register-based official statistics / Deliu, N., D Falorsi, P., Falorsi, S., Chianella, D., Alleva, G.. - In: JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY. SERIES A. STATISTICS IN SOCIETY. - ISSN 0964-1998. - (2026). [10.1093/jrsssa/qnag107]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11573/1779074
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