Human shielding from wolves facilitates jackal expansion across Europe

Among the many pathways through which human activity can shape biodiversity patterns, modification of biotic interactions tends to be overlooked. Here we show how interacting anthropogenic, biotic and abiotic factors drive the continental-scale expansion of a highly adaptive mesocarnivore, the golden jackal. Using a dataset of playback surveys conducted across Europe, we find that the presence of an apex predator, the grey wolf, is the primary factor limiting jackal occurrence. However, a human presence acts as a shield that considerably reduces the strength of wolf suppression and provides jackals refuge near people. Our fitted distribution model predicts that jackals have the potential to expand until they occupy 75% of the continent, almost six times larger than their current range. The ongoing recovery of wolves in Europe could reduce suitable areas for expanding jackals by up to 18% in the near future, but a persistent human-shield effect, coupled with climate warming and landscape modification, is expected to sustain continued jackal expansion across the continent. Our results illustrate how cascading anthropogenic impacts can hamper the ecological benefits provided by apex predator recovery.