A policy-oriented framework for assessing the economic sustainability of industrial photovoltaic investments

Industrial photovoltaic (PV) systems play a strategic role in advancing sustainable production models and supporting the transition toward more resource-efficient industrial processes. As firms seek to reduce electricity price volatility, improve energy efficiency, and comply with climate policies, industrial PV adoption becomes increasingly relevant. However, recent slowdowns in solar deployment and evolving support schemes raise important questions regarding the economic sustainability and policy effectiveness of industrial PV investments. This study develops a policy-oriented framework for the economic assessment of industrial PV investments. The framework combines discounted cash flow analysis with scenario analysis, break-even assessment, and Monte Carlo simulations to account for policy incentives, self-consumption patterns, and market uncertainty, thereby evaluating both profitability and the resilience of investment outcomes. The approach is demonstrated through the application to a 1 MW industrial PV system within the Italian regulatory context. Results demonstrate that industrial PV investments are economically viable across all scenarios. A 45% capital grant raises NPV from 1190 €/kW to 1610 €/kW and reduces the discounted payback period from more than seven years to less than two years, while self-consumption emerges as the primary driver of long-term financial resilience. Risk analysis confirms the robustness of investment performance under adverse conditions. Monetising the avoided CO2 emissions reveals an environmental value of approximately 37,000–63,000 €. The findings provide insights for policymakers and industrial stakeholders, highlighting the central role of self-consumption in strengthening the long-term viability of industrial PV systems under evolving market conditions, while current support mechanisms primarily reduce upfront investment costs.