Understanding Reporting of Violence Against Women to Police: A Bayesian Multilevel Model for Integrated Official and Administrative Data from Anti-violence Centers in Apulia

This study investigates the determinants of formal reporting to law enforcement among victims undertaking a pathway out of the violence in Anti-Violence Centers (AVCs) of the Apulia region (Southern Italy). Micro-level data are obtained by integrating the official survey on AVCs conducted by the Italian National Institute of Statistics with the regional administrative monitoring on their service users. We employ a Bayesian multilevel logistic regression model with municipality-level random effects to explore individual and contextual factors impacting on the reporting outcome while accounting for the hierarchical data structure. At individual level, the analysis reveals significant differences in formal reporting depending on the relationship with the perpetrator, the nature and severity of violence, the presence of minor children and victim’s age. Among the contextual variables, the study highlight s the role of specific AVC service provison, of territorial anti-violence networks as well as geographical disparities among provinces and major municipalities. This work adds on the value of integrating multiple data sources for an effective characterization and understanding of the complex and delicate dynamics of formal reporting by women victims of violence and informs evidence-based policies to concretely strengthen targeted anti-violence interventions at individual and territorial levels.