NTD Remodeling in the SARS-CoV-2 BA.3.2 Variant May Influence Spike Stability and Immune Escape

In November 2024, a highly mutated descendant of the Omicron BA.3 subvariant, designated BA.3.2, emerged in South Africa carrying 39 spike mutations, two large N-terminal domain (NTD) deletions and a novel four-amino acid insertion. A key feature of BA.3.2 is extensive NTD remodeling, including a major deletion spanning residues 135–148 affecting the β-hairpin region and contributing to the loss of most of the N1 loop. This study compares the evolutionary dynamics and structural features of BA.3.2 with BA.3. Phylodynamic analyses show that BA.3 underwent early demographic stability followed by a decline in genetic diversity, consistent with limited circulation, whereas BA.3.2 displays recent emergence and a progressive reduction in effective population size without rapid expansion. Selection analyses indicate BA.3 evolution is mainly driven by changes in the receptor-binding domain, while BA.3.2 shows dispersed signals across spike regions, including codon 1162. Structural and molecular dynamic analyses reveal increased flexibility and a broader conformational landscape in the BA.3.2 NTD, driven by the deletion and resulting loss of stabilizing interactions. Overall, BA.3.2 follows a distinct evolutionary trajectory characterized by antigenic remodeling of the spike NTD, underlining the need for continued surveillance of emerging SARS-CoV-2 descendant lineages.