From wind to hydrogen: mapping the competitiveness of hybrid offshore configurations in the Mediterranean Sea

Offshore wind is central to decarbonisation, yet its deployment in the Mediterranean Sea is increasingly constrained by grid limitations and curtailment. This study presents a geospatial techno-economic competitiveness assessment of offshore wind and hybrid offshore wind-hydrogen systems across the Mediterranean basin. Results show that optimal grid-connected offshore wind configurations achieve a LCOE of 48.4/MWh, while hybrid Power-to- X configurations reach a minimum LCOH (expressed in energy-equivalent terms) of 81.4/MWh. Under favorable market conditions, hybrid systems can achieve positive net present values, with a minimum payback time of 11 years, highlighting a strong dependence of economic performance on price scenarios. Power-to-X solutions, in particular hybrid wind-hydrogen systems that convert part of the offshore wind output via electrolysis, offer an alternative route to valorize offshore wind beyond direct grid injection. The analysis evaluates hybrid configurations in which 10%–90% of the wind farm capacity is allocated to onsite hydrogen production, compared against a conventional electricity-to-grid baseline. The assessment spans diverse Mediterranean locations and adopts the levelised cost of hydrogen as the main performance indicator to compare hybrid and stand-alone electricity-export setups, alongside complementary economic metrics. Results indicate that, when considering pure cost minimization, the gridonly scenario systematically delivers the lowest levelised cost across all assessed locations. However, sensitivity analysis to electricity and hydrogen market prices shows that hybrid configurations can become economically attractive under moderate-to-favorable conditions, despite higher levelised costs. Overall, the findings demonstrate that while offshore wind-hydrogen systems are not cost-optimal under current baseline assumptions, they may represent a viable future strategy to unlock offshore renewable potential in regions facing grid integration constraints and to support long-term hydrogen market development and decarbonisation objectives in the Mediterranean context.