Landscape of massive black-hole spectroscopy with LISA and the Einstein Telescope

Measuring the quasinormal mode (QNM) spectrum emitted by a perturbed black hole (BH) - also known as BH spectroscopy - provides an excellent opportunity to test the predictions of general relativity in the strong-gravity regime. We investigate the prospects and precision of BH spectroscopy in massive binary black hole ringdowns, one of the primary science objectives of the future Laser Interferometric Space Antenna (LISA) mission. We simulate various massive binary BH population models, featuring competing prescriptions for the delays between galaxy and BH mergers, for the impact of supernova feedback on massive BH growth, and for the initial population of high redshift BH seeds (light versus heavy seeds). For each of these scenarios, we compute the average number of expected events for precision BH spectroscopy using a Fisher-matrix analysis. We find that, for any heavy seed scenario, LISA will measure the dominant mode frequency within O(0.1)% relative uncertainty and will estimate at least three independent QNM parameters within 1% error. The most optimistic heavy seed scenarios produce O(100) events with 1% measurability for three or more QNM quantities during LISA's operational time. On the other hand, light seed scenarios produce lighter merger remnants, which ring at frequencies higher than LISA's sensitivity. Interestingly, the light seed models give rise to a fraction of mergers in the band of the Einstein Telescope, allowing for the measurement of three QNM parameters with ∼10% relative errors in approximately a few to ten events/year. More precise BH spectroscopy in the light seed scenarios would require instruments operating in the decihertz band.