Floating offshore wind sector development in the Mediterranean. Economic, employment and social analysis

Floating offshore wind (FOW) is emerging as a pivotal option for countries characterized by deep-water basins, where fixed-bottom technologies are not viable. Yet, the Mediterranean context still lacks integrated assessments for FOW. The objective of the present study is twofold: firstly, to quantify short- and medium-term costs, full-time equivalent (FTE) employees, and social acceptability of developing FOW in the Italian and Mediterranean context; and secondly, to assess the impact of national targets. The analysis adopts an integrated and replicable framework that combines techno-economic modelling, assessment of direct, indirect and induced employment, and public-acceptance evaluation, validated through a deep literature review and continuous consultation with stakeholders. Short-term capital expenditure is estimated in a range of 4.85-5.91 M€/MW, declining in the medium-term up to 4.13 M€/MW as learning, supply-chain maturation and port-hub industrialization materialise. Correspondingly, the levelized cost of energy ranges from 150 to 280 €/MWh in the short term and from 125 to 200 euro per MWh in the medium term. The FOW manufacturing, installation and construction phases have the potential to generate 14.4 kFTE/GW, whereas operations sustain approximately 1 kFTE/GW per year. Supply-chain localization is crucial, with a domestic-production pathway retaining 77% of potential employment, compared with 39% in import-reliant scenarios. This study demonstrates that FOW power industry has the potential to generate billions in investment, high added value and tens of thousands of employees. Yet, this potential can only be realised through the implementation of an integrated vision that combines policy, training, energy planning and infrastructure.