Brexit and migration: evidence from Italy

A substantial body of research has examined the impact of the June 2016 Brexit referendum from a UK-centred perspective. Much of this literature has focused on economic and social outcomes, with particular attention to migration. In this paper, we evaluate the causal impact of the uncertainty generated by the referendum on migration from the standpoint of a major country of origin—Italy, one of the principal sources of intra-EU flows to the UK. Specifically, we investigate whether the referendum redirected emigration flows from Italy towards alternative destinations (the migration diversion hypothesis). Drawing on detailed Italian administrative migration data, we also explore whether uncertainty induced by the referendum differentially affected distinct groups of migrants: Italians by birth, who acquired citizenship, and other EU citizens residing in Italy. Finally, we assess whether the effect of Brexit varies by educational attainment among Italian-born emigrants—high, medium, and low skilled. To address these questions, we implement a difference-indifferences strategy in which EU citizens emigrating from Italy serve as the treatment group, while non-EU citizens emigrating from Italy provide the control group. The findings offer clear evidence of migration diversion, particularly among low-skilled Italians by birth.