A field-validated finite element framework for predicting transient temperature fields in multilayer pavements

Extreme continental climates in Kazakhstan impose large diurnal and seasonal thermal gradients in pavements, accelerating temperature-related distress. This study develops and validates a two-dimensional finite element model for predicting non-stationary temperature fields in multilayer pavement–subgrade systems from geographic location and climatic inputs. The transient heat-conduction problem with a surface thermal-balance boundary condition was implemented in MATLAB (PDE Toolbox). Validation used hourly temperatures from embedded sensors on the Kyzylorda-Shymkent (at km 2057) and Oskemen-Zyryanovsk (at km 0+075) highways during 1-31 July 2014. Predictions reproduced the attenuation of temperature amplitude with depth and closely matched measurements: coefficients of variation were <0.25 and correlations approached 1.0 at 2.1 m. Root mean square errors ranged from 0.44-7.49 °C and 0.26-5.65 °C for the two sites. The approach supports climate-resilient pavement design using readily available air-temperature data.