Il ‘fattore Xi’ e le prospettive politiche a partire dal XX Congresso del Pcc

This paper analyzes the transformation of China’s political leadership under Xi Jinping, marked by the abandonment of Deng Xiaoping’s collective leadership model. Since taking power, Xi has centralized authority through the “three-in-one” system and the 2018 constitutional amendment removing term limits—signaling a return to strongman politics. The paper examines Xi’s consolidation of power via the marginalization of rival factions like the Communist Youth League, the elevation of loyalists to the Politburo Standing Committee, and the use of anti-corruption campaigns as political purges. Yet this centralization has created internal tensions, as Xi’s allies often lack ideological coherence and are tied mainly by personal loyalty. The absence of a designated successor dismantles the post-1990s succession norm, introducing uncertainty at the top. Combined with economic strains—rising youth unemployment, local government debt, and slowing growth—these factors may threaten regime legitimacy. Finally, the paper explores recent signs of recalibration in elite coordination, raising questions about the durability of Xi’s rule and China’s political stability.