Decarbonization of the civil sector through utility-scale PV and related grid improvements: assessment of economic and carbon impact in an Italian case study

This study investigates the economic and environmental implications of deploying utility-scale photovoltaic systems to support the decarbonization of the civil sector in the Tuscany Region, Italy. By combining regional data, policy targets, and technical simulations, this paper compares the BAU scenario with two contrasting scenarios: one based on traditional fossil generation, and one supported by the adoption of utility-scale PV and battery energy storage systems. The analysis integrates electricity demand projections from full electrification of heating in residential and tertiary sectors, assesses photovoltaic potential using updated GIS and legislative data, and evaluates impacts on the regional transmission grid as defined by the Italian Transmission System Operator. The study concludes that investment in utility-scale PV and BESS infrastructure is a strategic and sustainable pathway for achieving regional decarbonization goals, even if CAPEX is still more expensive than providing electricity to the civil sector using fossil sources, due to lower capacity factors and higher generation and grid costs.