Assessing crop failure risk in Italian agriculture: targeting vulnerable areas for artificial lake development as a drought mitigation strategy

In the last decades, Italy is experiencing a significant increase in drought events, both in frequency and severity. The agricultural sector, which is highly dependent on water availability, is among the most affected, with estimated economic losses exceeding 1,4 billion annually (Cammalleri et al., 2020). In this context, the adoption of operational and territorially targeted tools is essential. This study analyses the potential risk of crop loss at the national scale through the development of an innovative “Damage Index.” This index integrates agro-climatic and economic variables to classify Italian agricultural areas according to their vulnerability to drought, providing a robust, operational, and easily interpretable analytical tool. The ultimate goal is to produce a mapping of areas requiring priority intervention for the implementation of water storage systems, particularly small agricultural reservoirs, as a strategy to mitigate agricultural risk under scenarios of prolonged drought. This work represents a concrete contribution to territorial planning and the resilience of agro-hydrological systems, laying the foundation for efficient and climate-aware adaptation policies.