New developments in the estimation of tephra fallout hazard at Mt. Etna, in Italy, during the PANACEA project

Mount Etna, in Italy, is one the most active volcanoes in the world. Over the past two decades, its explosive activity has intensified, producing high eruptive columns that rise up to about 15 km above sea level. The particles ejected during these eruptions have caused numerous challenges for the population living on the volcano’s slope, mainly due to difficulties in removing the deposits, but also in terms of health risks and mobility disruptions. The increase in Etna’s explosive activity has led in continuous improvements in the monitoring and forecasting system adopted by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, since 2009, using new sensors and enhanced data collection and analysis. In this paper, we present a review of several activities carried out in the frame of the Work Package 2 (WP2) of the ‘Probabilistic AssessmeNt of volCano-related multi-hazard and multi-risk at Mount EtnA (PANACEA)’ project. While the PANACEA project aims at using accurate physics-based models and advanced probabilistic approaches to assess volcanic multi-hazards and identify at-risk zones, the WP2 objective is to improve previous studies on the tephra fallout hazards for Etna. In this context, various activities have been conducted such as: enrich the data collection of eruption source parameters by analysing previous studies and developing new methods for their quantification; improve hazard estimates using multi-model approaches; quantify the uncertainty in eruption source parameters. Additionally, progresses have been made in developing hazard maps that include ballistic impact analysis. These approaches may be extended to other active volcanoes where advanced monitoring and surveillance systems are in place.