Predictors of recurrence in early-stage cervical cancer without adjuvant treatment after radical surgery

Objective: The role of adjuvant radiotherapy after radical surgery for early-stage cervical cancer is controversial in the absence of high-risk factors. This study aimed to evaluate predictors of recurrence in patients with early-stage cervical cancer undergoing observation after radical surgery. Methods: Patients with FIGO 2018 stage I cervical cancer who underwent radical surgery without adjuvant therapy at the European Institute of Oncology, IEO (Milan, Italy) between 2010 and 2023 were retrospectively identified. Patients with high-risk factors for recurrence (positive margins, parametria, or lymph nodes) were excluded. Recurrence-free survival following surgery was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Log-rank test and Cox regression analyses were performed to assess predictors of recurrence. Results: A total of 340 patients were identified: 7 (2.0 %) stage IA1, 31 (9.1 %) IA2, 191 (56.2 %) IB1, 108 (31.8 %) IB2, and 3 (0.9 %) IB3. Twenty-two (6.5 %) patients had a recurrence. The estimated 5-year recurrence-free survival for the overall cohort was 93.5 % (95 % CI, 89.9–95.8). On multivariate analysis, factors associated with a higher risk of recurrence included tumor size ≥2 cm (HR 3.04, 95 % CI 1.26–7.35; p = 0.01) and grade 3 (HR 2.76, 95 % CI 1.1–6.9; p = 0.03). Conclusion: In the absence of high-risk factors, the risk of recurrence in patients with early-stage cervical cancer who did not receive adjuvant treatment after radical surgery was low overall. Patients with individual risk factors such as tumor size ≥2 cm or tumor grade 3 may be at higher risk of recurrence. Further research is warranted to redefine risk groups and tailor adjuvant treatment based on timely clinicopathological risk factors.