Prioritizing drought resilience: identifying high-vulnerability irrigated areas in Italy

Agricultural water scarcity is becoming an increasingly urgent issue in Italy due to recurring droughts and rising competition for water resources. Historical events such as the droughts of 2002, 2003, and 2006 (Altobelli et al., 2015) have revealed the limitations of current irrigation systems and the need for more resilient water management strategies. A critical step toward this resilience is understanding both the extension of the irrigated land characterised by high vulnerability and the volume of water at stake. Although earlier studies have proposed solutions such as improved land use practices and irrigation efficiency (Elliott et al., 2013), and more recently, there is growing interest the use of small agricultural reservoirs (SmARs) to stabilize water supply (Piemontese et al., 2020; Casadei et al., 2019), few have focused on identifying the specific crops and areas that should be prioritized for these interventions. Effective planning to mitigate water stress requires a spatially detailed understanding of both water demand and vulnerability. This study fills that gap by combining long-term irrigation water demand estimates for 13 major crops with the PRIME Index of vulnerability (Cappellato et al. 2024). Through the integration of hydrological modelling, high resolution spatial data, and vulnerability mapping, we identify regions where limited water resources should be most strategically allocated. The results provide a practical framework for decision-makers aiming to improve drought resilience and sustainability in agricultural water use.