Rome’s elephant in the room. US pressures over China and Italian foreign policy change

Despite growing interest in Italy’s foreign and security policy, existing scholarship has largely downplayed the role of external pressures – particularly by the United States – in shaping foreign policy change. This study combines theoretical reflection and empirical analysis to address this neglected dimension. Through a review of the literature, it argues that US pressure remains an underexplored yet crucial explanatory variable for Italy’s international behaviour. This shortcoming is particularly evident in Italy’s post-2019 engagement with China and its expanding security footprint in the Indo-Pacific between 2021 and 2025 in the wake of other European countries. Empirical evidence points clearly to Washington’s pressure as a key driver of policy change. These cases reveal a pattern of alignment that cannot be sufficiently explained by domestic-level variables alone – external inputs must be accounted for. By stressing the role of foreign pressures, the article sketches a revised understanding of alliance dynamics as tools of management over secondary states. It also highlights how systemic pressures impactless powerful countries. Finally, the Italian case underscores the need for mid-range theories that better integrate structural variables, capturing the interplay between international incentives and domestic adaptation.