Night-time lights and Multidimensional Poverty in Conflict-torn Cabo Delgado

This study estimates the impact of violent conflict in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique on multidimensional poverty (MP) incidence. Given that no systematic data collection has taken place since the outbreak of violence, we use night-time lights (NTLs) emission as a proxy for the impact of violent conflict. We first assess the usefulness of night-time radiance data in areas affected by violent conflict and investigate the extent to which NTL variations respond to violent conflict. Then, to estimate the causal impact of conflict on NTLs, we propose a difference-in-difference design. We proceed by analysing the relationship between night-time radiance and multidimensional poverty incidence using a generalized linear model with a logit link and then combine the estimates obtained in these two analytical steps, concluding that the conflict causes an increase of 2.1 to 3.4 percentage points in the incidence of multidimensional poverty in the affected areas of Cabo Delgado.