Landscape and climatic predictors of Kentish Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus) distributions throughout Kazakhstan

Worldwide populations of shorebirds are declining, associated with a complex interplay of climate change, predation, human disturbance and habitat degradation. Comprehensive information on the distribution and breeding ecology of shorebird populations is crucial to understand and mitigate these threats. Kazakhstan, the largest country in Central Asia, comprises multiple flyways and breeding habitats for shorebird species, including the Kentish Plover Charadrius alexandrinus, but information on the population size and breeding distribution of shorebird species in the region is highly limited. We conducted a wide-scale survey of Kentish Plover across Kazakhstan during the breeding season and utilize species distribution modelling to outline key anthropogenic and environmental variables that determine Kentish Plover presence. Our results reveal widespread distribution of Kentish Plovers across Kazakhstan but indicate that breeding densities are generally low. Our distribution modelling stresses the primary importance of proximity to water bodies and climate as the main predictors of Kentish Plover presence, but reveals a weak association with indicators of human disturbance. We utilize our distribution modelling to provide the first quantitative estimate of the breeding population size of Kentish Plover in Kazakhstan, which indicates a modest number of individuals given the size of the country (between 12 000 and 32 000 individuals). Our results indicate the key routes via which climate change may impact on population-level distributions of Kentish Plover and provide a platform for future studies investigating species distributions across similarly vast and inaccessible regions.