Long-term forestation-deforestation dynamics in a socioeconomic perspective: The case of Italy, 1936–2018

To explore long-term socio-ecological relationships at the local scale, this study investigates the evolution of forest cover (1936–2018) vis à vis population, settlements, and economic activities in Italy using geo-spatial information sources that combine environmental and socioeconomic indicators. Long-term forestation (or deforestation) dynamics were assessed in more than 8000 municipalities through a comprehensive analysis of the background socioeconomic context. A multivariate framework integrating descriptive statistics and maps, exploratory pairwise correlations, and a confirmative canonical correlation analysis, has discriminated five distinctive paths in forest cover change over time. Urbanization-driven deforestation in accessible and economically dynamic flat-hilly districts, and forestation after land abandonment in remote rural areas, have been the most frequent processes of landscape transformation in Italy. The empirical findings of this study reveal the complex interactions between forests and local communities, thus supporting the core assumption of the well-known Forest Transition Theory, a key research topic in forest assessment and policy. A peculiar contribution of this research lies in highlighting local specificities in forest dynamics, which are shown to depend strictly on the economic and demographic characteristics of local communities, as well as on the degree of land protection. Triggering a path of sustainable development in rural areas requires policies that combine factors potentially beneficial for the environment, such as the expansion of forests, in order to create a more balanced set of socio-ecological conditions. This will help reducing depopulation and fostering local economies through low-impact socio-demographic processes that are compatible with the environmental quality typical of ‘forest dominated’ landscapes.