Mapping the habitat suitability of Culex pipiens in Europe using ensemble bioclimatic modelling

Aim: Anthropogenic pressure on natural ecosystems has profoundly influenced the dynamics of disease vectors, altering their distribution, phenology, and increasing the risk of vector-borne diseases. This study aims to investigate the climatic and environmental determinants of Culex pipiens distribution in continental Europe, to inform and support surveillance and mitigation strategies for vector-borne disease risk. Location: Europe. Time Period: 2008–2018. Major Taxa Studied: Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae). Methods: We used an ensemble species distribution modelling approach, integrating high-resolution occurrence data from entomological surveillance with a suite of bioclimatic, topographic and anthropogenic predictors. We acknowledged the potential sampling bias due to higher surveillance in more anthropised areas and addressed this limitation during both model calibration and validation. Results: Imperviousness emerged as the most influential predictor of Cx. pipiens distribution, highlighting a strong association with human-modified, low-elevation areas. The ensemble modelling approach outperformed individual models in terms of predictive accuracy and spatial transferability. Main Conclusions: These results emphasise the need to incorporate anthropogenic factors into disease vector distribution models to support evidence-based surveillance and control strategies, while also offering updated, robust and spatially explicit predictions of the habitat suitability for Cx. pipiens in Europe. Overall, this study highlights the role of human modification of the natural environment in shaping Cx. pipiens distribution, extending previous knowledge on the role of urban areas.